NASDAQ 100 Index Still in Up-trend; QLD and TYH beat most NASDAQ 100 stocks again!

GMI6/6
GMI-R8/10
T210876%

The GMI is still at 6 although the more sensitive GMI-R has declined to 8.   Still, there were 185 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.   GMI10152010The Worden T2108 Indicator is now at 76%, within neutral territory and down from the high of 84% last week.   But only 41% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks had their MACD above their signal line, reflecting the weakness in tech stocks.   Still, the SPY and QQQQ have closed above their 10 week averages for 10 weeks. During that time, the QQQQ increased +11%, QLD by +23% and TYH by +36%.   The TYH beat all but 3 of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and QLD beat all but 12 of them.   I repeatedly learn the virtue of just holding the QLD or TYH   ETF’s rather than trying to find the few individual stocks that beat these amazing ultra ETF’s.

Up-trend continues; GMI strong but T2108 is at 83%

GMI6/6
GMI-R10/10
T210883%

All of my indicators are still in up-trends, with the GMI at 6 and the GMI-R at 10.   The Worden T2108 indicator is at 83%, not far from the highest levels that it typically gets to, around 90%. I continue to hold QLD and a few other individual stocks.GMI01102009 Meanwhile, the QQQQ has completed the 43rd day of its short term up-trend and has been above its key 10 week average for 9 straight weeks. No one knows when an up-trend will end.   We must wait for the critical technical signals. A trend follower must always get out after the top, after the down-trend has revealed itself.   The key is to ride the   elevator up and exit near the top floor,   before it drops to the basement.

My post from the bear market bottom; weak TJX; GMMA shows QQQQ in strong up-trend

GMI6/6
GMI-R10/10
T210876%

“Last week, a person who knows nothing about the market asked me how to short stocks.   This is reminiscent of the  stories of the shoeshine boys providing stock tips, near the roaring 20’s market’s top.   The sentiment is just too negative right now.   Does this mean the market has to turn up?   Not necessarily, but the market is always an assessment of competing probabilities.  â€œ (Post on 3/8/2009, GMI: 0, T2108: 7%)

I wrote the above words last March, which turned out to be just as the market successfully tested its bear market lows and   began the current rise.   The Worden T2108 indicator was   in single digits, a rare screaming oversold buy signal.   When people around me who never traded asked me how to short stocks it turned out to be a key contrary signal that the market decline was near an end.   Similarly, I remember when a friend who knows little about the market asked me if he should refinance his house to invest in the market–back in 2000 near that market’s top………

I have noticed that the pundits have been saying that TJX , the discount retailer chain, is a good buy. I therefore was struck by the GMMA daily chart below, which is flashing warning signals. With the short term averages (black lines) now below the longer term averages (red), this is not a stock I would want to own.   It may even be a good short play.   You do know that analysts sometimes tout a stock so that their big clients can unload their long positions to the unsuspecting public. (The “NA” on the chart shows when IBD wrote about TJX in its New America column.) Another stock with similarly weak technicals is PWRD.

TJX--GMMA

Meanwhile, the GMI and GMI-R

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