GMI: 1; GMI-S: 25; IBD 100 stocks and market leaders falter

@ 12:01 am

Well, the GMI declined to 1 on Friday and the GMI-S fell to 25.  On Friday, only 14% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, along with 21% of the S&P 500 stocks and none of the Dow 30 stocks.  Gmi1222_1 Only 73 stocks in my universe of 4,000 stocks hit a new 52 week high.  Only 32% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, the lowest percentage since last July.  Only 25% of my short term indicators for four indexes are positive;  none of the indicators for the Nasdaq 100 stocks are positive, and even the longer term indicators for these indexes has fallen below 100% (GMI-L: 94%) for the first time since October 24.

The IBD 100 stocks are also faltering. Only 38% of the IBD 100 stocks from the list published on 12/18 advanced on Friday and only 2 stocks hit a 52 week high. Ibdperf1222 More telling, only 22% of the stocks from 12/18 closed higher on Friday than they did when that list was published.  With one exception, less than 50% of the stocks in the IBD 100 lists in this table closed above their average price of the past 30 days, and there were very few new highs.

Beware the general market when the leaders weaken.  When a leader like RIMM announces great earnings (+47%) after the close on Thursday , soars on extended trading, and then opens at its high and closes at its low, it is a sign of impending weakness.  On Friday, RIMM opened at 139.97, rose to 140.11 and closed at 130.00, down 3.70 on very heavy above average volume.  Then look at AAPL  which hasn’t hit a new high in 19 days, and GOOG which has not done so in 21 days.  All 3 stocks have now also closed below their 10 day averages.   With the QQQQ in its 3rd day of a new down-trend, I am slowly accumulating QID, which rises as the QQQQ falls. Since the Nasdaq 100 peaked on 11/24, that index has fallen -3.85% and 66% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have declined and only 23% have risen 1% or more.  With odds like these, it pays to be in cash, or short the tech/growth stock indexes.

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GMI: 5; GMI-S: 44; 2nd day of QQQQ down-trend; buying QID

@ 12:01 am

The markets continued to weaken on Thursday, but the GMI remains at 5.  The GMI-S, however, fell 19, to 44.  None of my four short term indicators for the QQQQ remain positive.  Gmi1221_1 Only 28% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Thursday, along with 32% of the S&P 500 stocks and 20% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Only 28% of the IBD 100 list from 12/18 rose and only 28 closed above their close when the list was published.  Growth stocks are clearly hurting.  There were 163 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Only 42% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have now closed above their 30 day averages, the lowest since last August 9, during the market decline.  Many of my indicators are the weakest they have been since the decline last summer. In view of the developing down-trend in the QQQQ, I am slowly accumulating the ultra inverse QQQQ ETF, QID, which goes up as the QQQQ falls.  This is the first time my IRA can make a good profit from a market decline without the need to purchase put options on individual stocks or indexes.  The QID is leveraged so that it will rise twice as fast as the QQQQ declines.

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GMI: 5; new QQQQ down-trend; Dow theory warning?

@ 12:01 am

NOTE:  THE PROSHARES ETF’S WENT EX-DIVIDEND YESTERDAY AND THEIR PRICES WERE REDUCED BY THE DIVIDEND.

Well, the GMI weakened 1, to 5 on Wednesday.  Only 34% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, as did 51% of the S&P 500 and 33% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Gmi1220_1 43% of the stocks on the IBD 100 list from 12/18 also rose.  After 86 days of an up-trend, the QQQQ is now in a short term down-trend (D-1).  This does not mean that the down-trend will last long.  But for now, I am short the QQQQ (by owning the inverse ETF, QID) and mainly in cash.  The QQQQ is acting very differently than it has been.  AAPL and GOOG continue to weaken, and RIMM is just holding on.  I believe the odds are turning against growth/tech stocks.  As the GMI declines, I will add to my short position.  Stay tuned………………………………..

Ever hear of the Dow theory?  It seems that the Dow Industrials and Dow Transportation averages should each confirm the major trend.Dj20 Has anyone noticed that the Dow Transportation average appears to be faltering?  In fact, one might even see a head and shoulders top in this chart.  Is this another sign of impending market weakness? Why would the transportation stocks be weakening in such a strong economy?

Please note my disclaimer at the bottom of Wednesday’s post.