Blog Post: Day 1 of $QQQ short term up-trend but 25% end within 5 days; Study this annotated 10:30 weekly chart of $SPY and $QQQ to see how I assess their primary trends.

GMI3/6
GMI-25/9
T210831%

Look at this chart and see the current down-trend pattern of SPY. The 10:30 weekly chart of QQQ tells a similar story. While my short term indicator of QQQ has turned up, note that in any change in trend the shorter term indicator’s trend will change direction first but it does not necessarily mean the longer term trend will also change direction. When the longer term trend eventually turns up, the 10:30 weekly chart will tel me. Will the 2025 decline turn into one like 2022 or 2023? No one knows, but the 30 wk avg is turning down…..

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The GMI is now= 3 (of 6), and still RED. Near the bottom of the table I provide a count of the number of weeks QQQ has closed  with its 10wk avg above or below the 30 wk avg.

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Blog Post: Day 42 of $QQQ short term down-trend, it may end Friday; However, longer term trends remain down, see 10:30 weekly chart of $SPY and my thoughts

GMI1/6
GMI-25/9
T210832%

It takes a long time for the longer term trends to turn up. There were only 7 US stocks at ATHs on Thursday. If the QQQ short term down-trend ends Friday, I might nibble at TQQQ. However, I have found that about 25% of short term up-trends end within 5 days. My 10:30 weekly charts of the major market indexes are still weak. I would like to see the 10 week average cross above the 30 week average and the 30 week average to curve up for me to trust a significant new Stage 2 up-trend has begun. Look at this 10:30 weekly chart of SPY. In prior declining markets the indexes often rebounded back to the 10 week or 30 week average, only to begin a new larger decline. The 30 week average is still declining. Market declines often come after the earnings release period has ended. I do not predict bottoms. I only react after they have formed.

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