Blog Post: Day 27 of $QQQ short term down-trend; GMI =0 and RED; More new US 52 week lows than highs; This weekly chart shows possible beginning of an ominous Weinstein Stage 4 down-trend; I remain safely in cash and watching the Worden T2108 indicator. But oversold bounce possible.

@ 9:09 pm
GMI0/6
GMI-21/9
T210823%

If the 30 week average curves down, it could signal the BEGINNING of a major down-trend. That signal got me out of all large declines since 2000. I refuse to put my $$$ at risk. I do not mind buying back higher if/when the trend turns up. I cannot tolerate a major drawdown in my retirement accounts. Younger people can hold on with the belief that the market always comes back. After the 1929 top, the Dow took 25 years to come back. I can’t wait a long time for my account to recover.  The market is severely oversold now, however, so we may see a quick short term bounce. Note the above average trading volume on the recent weekly declines.

I can make $$$ trading long  when the GMI is Green and above 3. QQQ has had its 10 week average rising above its 30 week average for 38 straight weeks. The 10 week average is now declining.  If it should decline to below the 30 week average, it would be quite ominous for the bulls. Watch T2108, now at 23%. If/when it declines to below 10%, I often told my students to buy a little SPY, not individual stocks,  and only to buy more very  slowly with each purchase at higher prices. I react to the market’s actions, not the news or opinions.
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Blog Post: Day 24 of $QQQ short term down-trend; $SPY and $DIA join $QQQ in daily BWR down-trends. Staying long now is fighting the market’s trend. See also what a daily RWB up-trend looked like for $QQQ that began in May, 2025. That is the pattern to be long.

@ 7:19 pm
GMI1/6
GMI-24/9
T210832%

When the shorter averages (red) decline below the longer term averages (blue) leaving a white space between them, it is a daily BWR down-trend. I will not hold long positions except money market funds or treasury ETFs  (TBIL). Dotted line shows daily closes. This is my modified Guppy chart based on Daryl Guppy’s GMMA indicator. Guppy’s book is listed on this blog.

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Note what a daily  RWB up-trend looked like beginning last May. Ignore the news and opinions and let the market guide our trading.

Blog Post: GMI=0 and Flashes RED! Day 22 of $QQQ short term down-trend; My 10:30 weekly chart below shows QQQ is now below its 30 week average. Look what happened the last time it did so in March, 2025. A major decline may be just beginning. Cash is king!

@ 10:55 pm
GMI0/6
GMI-22/9
T210834%

On February 4th I posted that a new QQQ short term down-trend had begun. QQQ went sideways after that but QQQ may now be entering a longer term Stage 4 down-trend. If it does so, we may be in for a sizable decline. That signal got me out early from the large declines since 2000. I have been posting that I prefer to be in cash. If the 30 week average turns down, all of my funds will be in cash. Be very careful. Most people who have not experienced a major market decline may be slaughtered. Look at recent above average weekly volume declines. Gray line in chart shows weekly close. If we enter a Stage 4 decline I will post the indicator I use to detect market bottoms. Study the Livermore quotes below that I showed my students.

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GMI=0 and RED.

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