Friday’s indicators are very close to what occurred last June 16 when the QQQ bottomed and began a large rally. Will we get another tradable rally or will QQQ decline to hit that lower trend channel line or something else? No one knows but stocks often bounce during earnings season. These charts reveal the trend. First the daily…
This weekly 10:30 chart provides another picture of the trend. QQQ is leading the two averages lower.
Finally, my favorite chart is a weekly chart displaying the 4,10, and 30 week averages. QQQ kissed the 4 wk avg. last week and continued down. Note how declines tend to ride the declining 4wk average (red dotted) down. When a real market turn comes, QQQ will close above the 4wk then the 10 wk and then the 30 wk averages which will then begin to turn up. Until that happens, the down-trend is not over. Trend followers react after the desired signals appear, not before.
When the GMI=0, it is probably best to go short or go fishing….
Will QQQ stop at the June low or will it decline to the trend channel line (237.47) and former green line top or go further below? Note the above average volume last week when QQQ declined.
FDX gapped down Friday after the company announced they were withdrawing guidance and feared the whole world was entering a slow down. Anyone who understood basic stage analysis would have exited FDX in August 2021 when it closed below its 30 week average (red solid line) and entered a Stage 4 down-trend. As long as the 30 week average is declining, I am out of a position or short.
Here are the 18 stocks on my IBD/MS watchlist that reached ATHs on Friday. They are sorted by Friday’s close/close 250 days ago. None of them have doubled. CEG has, but it is a recent IPO and did not trade 250 days ago. Any TMLs (true market leaders) among them?
ENPH is an example of a promising stock that encountered volatility last week. After having a high volume post earnings release GLB in late July (1), ENPH went sideways along its green line for weeks. Then last Wednesday it had an above average rise to a new ATH. It closed that day above its upper 15.2 daily Bollinger band (2). This is usually an extended position, except on a break-out. On Thursday it closed again above its upper BB. On Friday, however, it had an above average volume decline and actually traded intraday below its 8 day exponential moving average (purple dotted line). But it closed the day above that average (3). A close below that average would be one initial sign of technical weakness. If I owned it I would consider the GLB to have failed if ENPH closed back below its green line (282.46). If I purchased it based on the GLB set-up, I would then have to sell out until it closes back above the green line.
On the other hand, I always want to check a weekly chart before selling. This weekly chart of ENPH looks quite strong, with the 4wk avg>10wk avg>30 wk avg. And it closed up last week on higher volume. For a longer swing trade I would not sell until ENPH closes the week below its 10 week average (purple dotted line, at 266.43). The fact that last week was also a weekly green bar is a plus. A weekly green bar is drawn when the 4wk>10wk>30wk avg and the current bar bounces up off of the rising 4wk average and closes the week above it.
Meanwhile the GMI remains RED but gained a point Friday as the IBD growth mutual fund index retook its 50 day average. I also noted below that SPY has closed back above its 10 week average, a sign of strength. But the market remains in a Stage 4 down-trend.
Last week QQQ rallied back to just below its 4 week average (red dotted line). A close this week below the 4wk avg would be a sign of major weakness to me. Be careful!