Blog Post; Day 48 of $QQQ short term up-trend; My favorite set-up, oversold bounce (black dot) after a recent yearly high, see charts of $OPRA, $BELFB and list of other stocks


I have been refining my black dot oversold indicator by requiring a prior recent yearly high. I am looking for a stock that has been strong enough to reach a high  and then becomes oversold and starts to move up. The beauty of such a set-up is that I can place my stop loss below the low of the bounce day. If the bounce fails I am sold out with a small loss.  OPRA kept showing up on my all-time high scans and then had the OSB, designated by the black dots. OPRA has an IBD composite rating=99, RS=97 and ACC/DIS=A+. Earnings are expected to rise +96% this year. It is involved with AI and has already advanced 6x its year’s low price. I missed this bounce and do not own it. It is above its last green line top.

BELFB triggered this set-up on Friday and I bought a little. Let’s see of it holds on Monday. Note it is also above its last green lie top.

Other growth stocks meeting this set-up on Friday appear below. They are sorted by the last column, which is close/minimum price last 250 days. BELFB is 3.3x its low.


The GIM remains Green.


Blog Post: Day 37 of $QQQ short term up-trend; see list of 10 doublers that reached an ATH on Wednesday, and the daily charts of $BLDR and $PHM show my new OSB indicator


These stocks from my IBD/MS watchlist all at least doubled their lows the past year. See list sorted by last column, close/low price past 250 days. Note the predominance of construction stocks.

This daily chart shows my new oversold bounce (OSB) indictor, designated by a black dot. Note also the green line break-out (GLB) last April.

And PHM, black dot and GLB!

Blog Post: Here is an explanation of how I compute new US highs and lows each day and used it to exit in 11/2021; the GMI is 6 (of 6)


I tweeted a few days ago about my analysis of new highs and lows and how it helped me to exit the market in November, 2021. I received many questions about how I  compute these statistics and thought I would show you. I have created a New High and a New Low column in TC2000,  my favorite technical analysis software. I then select the watchlist stored in TC2000 for all US stocks and sort it by each of the columns separately. When I sort by the New High column, all stocks with a check are at a new high. I scroll down to the end of the stocks with checks, click on it and then can see to the left its number. That tells me the number of new highs. I repeat the process for new lows.

The trick is to create a set of conditions that filter for new highs. You cannot use a TCD2000 PCF  (personal formula) because any stocks that did not exist for the period in the formula will result in a null result. For example, if you try to calculate a new high in the past 250 days, any stock that did not have  valid closes for the past 250 days would result in a null result. To get around this limitation you have to use the built in TC2000 conditions, Price New High and Price New Low.

Right click in a column in your watchlist and select Insert, true/false and then new condition. Then search on price new high and once added and the parameters are set, write 2 formulas. Here are the filter conditions I use. First set all conditions to days. Price History New High set to 250 bars and now.  Next write the formula:  V>10000 to eliminate stocks with very low trading volume. Write the formula C>10 to eliminate stocks closing less than $10. You can use alternative numbers if you wish.

Once you have entered these conditions, select the Display tab. Then choose check and any color you want the check to be. The default setting for updating is manual, change it if you want it to update automatically. Create a second column retaining all filters except substitute Price New Low condition for the New High condition.

Once you have created these two columns, select the US stocks built in watchlist and then sort each column. There should be about 6486 stocks in this watchlist. On Friday, there were 207 new highs and 10 new lows.

Every night after the close I calculate these and other statistics and add them to my spreadsheet. In November, 2021, I noticed that while QQQ was continuing its series of all-time highs, the number of new lows was surging. This factor, together with the knowledge that the markets had been red hot led me to exit the markets. It was a lucky call but when QQQ later entered a Stage 4 decline I was content to remain out of the market for over a year. Here is my spreadsheet from 11/2021. QQQ’s peak occurred  on  11/22/2021, when there were 438 new lows. Column  I shows my QQQ  short term trend count.  On11/22  it  registered U-26,  the  26th  day  of  the  short term up-trend, which I track in my daily blog.

Some readers asked what the pattern of yearly highs and lows is now. Here it is.  There are very few new lows.  Column G shows the number of ATHs (all time highs). Note that on Friday there were 207 new highs, 10 new lows and 78 at an all-time high. Friday was the 35th day in the QQQ short term up-trend.



The GMI remains Green and registers 6 (of 6).