Stock Market Technical Indicators & Analysis
As long as the 10 week avg (dotted) is below the 30 wk avg (red) and the 30 wk is sloping down, I need to remain very cautious and on sidelines. The gray line is current weekly close and is trying to retake the 30 wk avg. Can it? Sometimes it does and then craters. $IWM looks the weakest of the 4 indexes.
THE GMI=4 and on a Green signal. It is not where I prefer it to be to be long. It is much more profitable to buy strong growth stocks when the GMI=6.
UBER is above it last green line but just below its ATH of 87, see monthly chart. I did not draw a new green line at 87 because the GLB (green line breakout) did not hold. Notice how UBER stopped in February at the green line and broke through on Friday, see daily chart. Be careful, earnings are expected on May 7. Last February, UBER took off with earnings. Will it repeat this week? Holding through earnings is risky and a gamble. Note the blue dot signals, to be explained at my free Boston IBD Meetup presentation on 5/21. Register in advance when they release the meeting link and you will also receive the session recording.
GMI=4 and could turn Green on Monday. This rally could still end after earnings season. Bottoms often occur in October. Until then, I ride the up-trend, a little. But I remain largely on the sidelines until the Stage 4 down-trend in the indexes should end.
Look at this chart and see the current down-trend pattern of SPY. The 10:30 weekly chart of QQQ tells a similar story. While my short term indicator of QQQ has turned up, note that in any change in trend the shorter term indicator’s trend will change direction first but it does not necessarily mean the longer term trend will also change direction. When the longer term trend eventually turns up, the 10:30 weekly chart will tel me. Will the 2025 decline turn into one like 2022 or 2023? No one knows, but the 30 wk avg is turning down…..
The GMI is now= 3 (of 6), and still RED. Near the bottom of the table I provide a count of the number of weeks QQQ has closed with its 10wk avg above or below the 30 wk avg.
