General Market Index (GMI) table

Blog Post: Day 6 of $QQQ short term up-trend; $QQQ. $DIA, $SPY, $IWM retake their 10 week averages! Keeping an eye on $UBER, see daily and monthly charts

@ 10:17 pm
GMI4/6
GMI-26/9
T210850%

UBER is above it last green line but just below its ATH of 87, see monthly chart. I did not draw a new  green line at 87 because the GLB (green line breakout) did not hold. Notice how UBER stopped in February at the green line and broke through on Friday, see daily chart. Be careful, earnings are expected on May 7. Last February, UBER took off with earnings. Will it repeat this week? Holding through earnings is risky and a gamble. Note the blue dot signals, to be explained at my free Boston IBD Meetup presentation on 5/21. Register in advance when they release the meeting link and you will also receive the session recording.

GMI=4 and could turn Green on Monday. This rally could still end after earnings season. Bottoms often occur in October. Until then, I ride the up-trend, a little.  But I remain largely on the sidelines until the Stage 4 down-trend in the indexes should end.

Blog Post: Day 1 of $QQQ short term up-trend but 25% end within 5 days; Study this annotated 10:30 weekly chart of $SPY and $QQQ to see how I assess their primary trends.

@ 8:48 pm
GMI3/6
GMI-25/9
T210831%

Look at this chart and see the current down-trend pattern of SPY. The 10:30 weekly chart of QQQ tells a similar story. While my short term indicator of QQQ has turned up, note that in any change in trend the shorter term indicator’s trend will change direction first but it does not necessarily mean the longer term trend will also change direction. When the longer term trend eventually turns up, the 10:30 weekly chart will tel me. Will the 2025 decline turn into one like 2022 or 2023? No one knows, but the 30 wk avg is turning down…..

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The GMI is now= 3 (of 6), and still RED. Near the bottom of the table I provide a count of the number of weeks QQQ has closed  with its 10wk avg above or below the 30 wk avg.

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Blog Post: Day 38 of $QQQ short term down-trend; If one had bought $SQQQ on Day 1 of the down-trend, it would now be up +26% and beat all but 1 (NEM) of S&P500 stocks and all but 1 (MSTR) of Nasdaq100 stocks! QQQ is down-13.5%! See my strategy..

@ 11:19 pm
GMI0/6
GMI-22/9
T210818%

I find repeatedly that if I can buy TQQQ on Day 1 of a new QQQ short term up-trend and if the up-trend lasts, it beats almost all individual stocks. Similarly, SQQQ beats almost all individual stocks in a sustained down-trend. The key is to buy on Day 1 and hold, but to sell quickly if the trend reverses.

I am so disappointed and angry that social media and the media pundits are, with few exceptions,  telling the masses to stay in a declining market. If one got out when I said I was in February, one can just calmly wait out the decline. I do not have to reinvest at the bottom, just return in a new up-trend before the market rises to the point I got out. Stop trying to predict a bottom and wait for it to define itself. Young investors can wait out a decline and keep dollar cost averaging into SPY. People near retirement may not have adequate time. It took 25 years for the DOW to come back to the 1929 top. But the market always comes back……

As to individual stocks, I, like Nicolas Darvas and William O’Neil,  buy only when a stock trades at or near an ATH,  I am not interested in buying the fallen leaders until or IF they ever trade at an ATH. We never know in advance when a rebound will end. The stocks that reach an ATH early in a market up-trend are proving themselves worthy of my attention and money. With the GMI=0 and RED, I must remain in cash. On Friday there were 4/6119 US stocks that reached an ATH (PM,TATT,ATO,OPOF).  When so few stocks trade at an ATH, it is too risky for me to buy one. But they are worth monitoring.

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On May 21, I shall present to the Boston IBD meetup group. The online meeting will be open to all. I will post a link when I receive it. You can register and just watch the recording if necessary.

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