Stock Market Technical Indicators & Analysis
IBD reports that the Investors Intelligence poll shows 61.5% of advisors are bullish. This is close to the 5 year high of 64.2% and a level of bullishness that often occurs near market tops. The extreme action of GLD, SLV and MSFT last week was ominous. MSFT has entered a Stage 4 down-trend, see chart. I am retreating to cash in my trading accounts. I am a chicken.
The GMI=4 (of 6).
Perhaps the Fed is going to lower rates again. The dollar is acting like rates are coming down. When interest rates fall, people sell dollars and buy gold. I am slowly buying some TQQQ as the QQQ short term up-trend has now lasted 3 days. I am much more confident of a new up-trend, however, when it reaches Day 5. Buying TQQQ during a new short term up-trend is difficult because I question whether the recent down-trend is really over. So I buy a little and hold my breath, ever ready to exit or add more.
I have found that the 5 day exponential moving average, XAVG 5, is an excellent indicator of a climbing rocket. I I scan for stocks with a a recent GLB (green line break-out at an ATH) that are riding their XAVG 5 (purple dotted line) higher. Study these examples of SMCI and SLV and then examine how your other strong stocks have behaved with respect to this indicator. Question to ponder: Why do some stocks track a moving average so closely for long periods? Are there so many persons trading off of the same average?
The GMI is still GREEN.
