The GMI is at 5 (of 6) and the GMI-R is 9 (of 10). The only indicator that is not positive is the Weekly QQQQ Index which indicates that the major longer term trend is still down.
But the short term trends are all positive. The GMI-S is at 100%, indicating that all 16 short term indicators for four key index ETF’s are positive. The GMI-L is still at 50% indicating that only half of the longer term indicators are positive. I wrote when I started this blog 2 years ago that my indicators have kept me on the right side of the general market’s trend since 1998. I have been largely out of the market in all major declines and back in for each ensuing recovery. For example, I closed out my margin account in October 2000 and cut back in my IRA trading account; my IRA was up more than 50% during the 2003 recovery. I also switched my university pension mutual funds to cash during 2000-2002. I have recently been in cash in my university pension funds since December and will remain in cash until the GMI rises to 6. To show you how possible it is to time the market, in 2000, I got out of my university pension growth fund around $103 and by 2002 it was trading in the 30’s. All this time the buy and hold crowd was urging the masses to stay invested, lest the market take off without them. This advice is garbage and many people were hurt. Once the market turns it rises for months and there is always plenty of time to get on board. No one can know for sure whether the current rally is one of those major turns. The key for me is to watch the market movement as reflected in the GMI, and to ignore the news and the media pundits. When the the train is moving in the right direction, one should hop on and not argue with others regarding whether it should be moving or how far it will go. If the train reverses I can always hop off and wait for it to come my way again. The key is to use tax deferred accounts where there are no tax consequences from getting in and out of positions….
After watching Judy’s marvelous pick, CPST, take off, up 50% since I mentioned it, (and 200% since Judy bought it) one of you asked me whether Judy has more picks. Of course she does! Two stocks she told me about that I own and am watching closely are ITRI and IMAX. Both are "concept" stocks, the only type she buys. Her picks do not always work out and I tend to wait for the right technical signal to buy them, usually at higher prices than she does. IMAX has been acting weak but is holding up, and ITRI looks good to me if it can break $101 and hold it….