We had a one day down-trend last week after the 51 day up-trend ended and now we are back to the first day of a new QQQQ short term up-trend (U-1, click on table to enlarge). The index could go either way. 
But the QQQQ and SPY longer term trends remain up, having closed above their 10 week averages for 12 straight weeks. So my long term university pension funds remain in mutual funds. My trading accounts are mostly in cash or in QLD (the ultra long QQQQ ETF) right now. The stochastics for the QQQQ reached oversold levels last Thursday and the market rallied. I need to see if this rally can hold on a few more days to be confident of this new short term up-trend. Note that only 12% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed Friday with their MACD above its signal line, suggesting short term weakness. The T2108 indicator, at 57%, is in neutral territory, but the Investors Intelligence poll shows few bears and many bulls.
Dr. Wish
Options expiration; Trend too close to call
The GMI rose to 4 and the GMI-R to 6. I will have to wait until Monday to get a better idea of the trend. Another up or flat day for the QQQQ on Friday would begin a new QQQQ short term up-trend count. Let’s get past option expiration first.
GMI declines to 2; IBD announces correction; bounce coming?
Thursday marked the first day of a new QQQQ short term down-trend. And I noticed that IBD now thinks the market is in a correction. The up-trend lasted 51 days. In the past, short term down-trends have tended to be of much shorter duration. A lot of stocks I watch now have low stochastics and are oversold. In fact, 38% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks fall into oversold territory. So, with this morning’s futures much higher and option expiration coming tomorrow, we will get a bounce here, but for how long? I remain long in my pension mutual funds, but am mainly in cash in my other accounts. I will wait for next week to determine my next move.