Dr. Wish

The GMI is still at +4, but the percentage of stocks in a short term up trend continues to decline.  As of Thursday’s close only 39% of the 4,000 stocks in my universe remained in a short term up trend.  This percentage last peaked at 66% on January 17, after bottoming out on December 30 at 28%.  There were 209 yearly highs on Thursday and 69% of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 stocks advanced.  The Dow 30 did better, with 80% advancing. The GMI-S is at 38.  Thursday was the fifth day of this QQQQ short term down trend (D-5).  I remain mainly in cash in my trading account.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

The GMI is stable at +4 and there were few changes in my indicators on Wednesday.  In spite of the Dow’s 100 point rise, there were 11 fewer yearly new highs than on Tuesday (120 vs. 131).  The percentage of stocks in a short term up trend declined to 46%.   However, the most stocks advanced in the past 10 days.  69% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, along with 69% of the S&P 500 stocks and 80% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Only 13% of the stocks that have doubled in the past year hit a new high on Wednesday.  The GMI-S rose a little to 25.  Wednesday was the fourth day (D-4) in the current short term down trend in the QQQQ.

The leaders, GOOG and AAPL,  continue to look sick.  I have to wonder whether when this bull finally turns its attention to CSCO, the up cycle is near the end of the line.  Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

The GMI held at +4, but the GMI-S fell to 19.  All four short term indicators for the DIA, QQQQ and SPY are now negative.  Even the indicators for the IJR began to weaken.  The continued weakness in the leaders is a sign of weakness to come throughout the markets.  Only 39% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Tuesday, along with 28% of the S&P 500 stocks and 30% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Only 49% of stocks are in a short term up trend.  There were 131 yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Only 50% of the 333 stocks that hit a new high ten days ago closed higher on Tuesday than they did ten days before.  Buying stocks at new highs has therefore been profitable only about one half the time.  Only 10% of the stocks that have doubled the past year hit a new high on Tuesday.  The percentage of stocks within 5% of a yearly high has fallen to 25%.  Currently the odds are against being long stocks.  Cash is king.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.