Trend change imminent; World markets in free-fall

GMI2/6
GMI-23/9
T210836%

The GMI registered 2 after Friday’s close and will likely be 2 or less again on Monday, triggering a GMI Sell signal. If so, I will close out my few longs and accumulate a leveraged inverse ETF (SQQQ). The T2108 is at 36% and has a long way to fall before our markets are at the level where declines typically end. (See weekly chart below.)

GMI12122014T2108wkly12142014

I am very concerned that many of the world’s markets are in free fall and we tend to pretend that the U.S. market is immune from the fall-out. Do we really think that the U.S. economy exists in its own cocoon? Take a look at the recent weekly charts of some of the foreign ETF’s:

TRF: Russia/East Europe:

TRFEWZ: Brazil:

EWZEWG: Germany:

EWGEWC: Canada

EWCEWW: Mexico:

EWWUSX–X: China:

USX--XCEE: Central Europe, Russia, Turkey:

CEEAre we worried yet? Or maybe it’s just a benign and temporary oil price precipitated scare….. (would you like to buy a bridge?) I’m not going to wait around to find out. (I have told you I trade like a chicken.)

 

 

$QQQ short term up-trend in jeopardy; mainly in cash; $NVAX strong

GMI4/6
GMI-23/9
T210845%

I wrote yesterday that it was critical that Tuesday’s bounce up off of support needed to hold on Wednesday to continue the short term up-trend. It did not, with the SPY and DIA leading the QQQ lower. Tuesday’s bounce was totally reversed. I am largely in cash in my trading accounts now as I wait for the dust to settle. (During Tuesday’s bounce, I had closed out my hedge in SQQQ.) So many people have been counting on a strong end of year.   This weakness could set that up, but I am not going to bet on it.

One of my few remaining positions is a biotech which Judy alerted me to years ago. It rose on Wednesday, indicating considerable relative strength. Here is the daily chart for NVAX.

NVAX12102014