GMI: 6; GMI-L: 100; Markets in Stage 2 up-trend

The GMI remains at 6 and the GMI-L is back to 100.  Thus, most of my short and long term indicators are positive.  Gmi0323 My long term trend indicator is based on Stan Weinstein’s stage analysis (see book to right).  Stan used the 30 week moving average as the best indicator of a stock’s or the market’s trend.  The recent steep decline in the major indexes caused my short term daily indicators to flash negative.  However, Weinstein’s indicators stayed positive throughout the decline.  In fact, the major indexes all found support at their rising 30 week averages.  Thus, as this chart of the Nasdaq 100 index shows, the markets remain in a Weinstein Stage 2 up-trend.  I never own stocks when they or the market are below their 30 week averages. Qqqqstage2 The recent support found at the 30 week average in all of the major stock indexes suggests to me that that the up-trend remains intact.  In my trading account I get in or out of stocks based on my daily indicators. In my long term mutual funds, however, I only get out of the market when the 30 week averages flash trouble.  This rule got me out of the market in 2000 and back in in 2003. 

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.

GMI: 6; GMI-S: 75; Going long

For the first time since February 26, the GMI is back to the maximum reading of 6.  The GMI-S is at 75; all four index ETF’s are in synch.  94-97% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Wednesday.  The end of first quarter Gmi0321 and anticipatory earnings release season rally I have been anticipating is here.  There were 245 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  57% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have now closed above their 30 day averages and 58% of my stock universe are above their 10 week averages.  These stats are almost back to where they were before the big decline on February 27. It is time for me to be long and to hold no shorts.  The QQQQ is in its first day of a new up-trend. Stocks I have been nibbling at include HURC and NUAN. I also own X and WCG and am looking to go back into the ultra QQQQ ETF, QLD.

Blogdisclaimer

GMI: 4; GMI-S: 50; Going long

The GMI rose to 4 for the first time since February 26.  The GMI-S has also recovered to 50; one half of the four short term indicators for each of four index ETF’s (noted in table) are now positive.  Gmi0320 There were 155 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks, the most since February 26, just before the large 416 point drop in the Dow.  On Tuesday there were 73-87% gainers among the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks.  34% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, up from 13% on March 5 and March 13.  49% of the stocks in my universe have now closed above their 10 week averages. The QQQQ is in the 16th day of its current short term down-trend.  I have closed out all of my shorts and begun to go long.  Sixteen stocks in the latest IBD 100 stock list hit a new high on Tuesday:  SIMO,WFR,SSYS,DECK,CCK,PCAR,BWLD,PCP,ROCM,FDS,MIDD,

WCG,DWSN,GLP,BDC,BTJ.  I own some of these.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of yesterday’s post.