GMI: +6; market trendless; still short SBUX

The market barely held Thursday.  The GMI remains at +6 and there were 141 new highs Thursday. Gmi915  About one half of the Dow 30 and S&P 500 stocks advanced along with 39% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  Market internals weakened slightly.  We may have to wait until after the Fed meeting next week for the market to reveal its true trend.  Right now, I have reduced my long positions and retain my puts on SBUX.  This is not the type of market on which to place a huge bet either way. 

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GMI: +6, internals weakening; Fed surprise?

While the GMI remains at +6, a lot of my internal market indicators are weakening.  Gmi914 There were only 114 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks closing above their 30 day averages fell from 62% to 46%.  A close below the 30 day average is frequently a sign of impending weakness for momentum stocks. Only 15% of Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Wednesday, along with 30-31% of the stocks in the S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes. The percentage of stocks closing above their 10 week average has declined from 64% on Monday to 53% on Wednesday.  The DIA has closed just below its 30 day average and the SPY and QQQQ are very close to their 30 day averages.  Sustained closes of these indexes below their 30 days will trigger reductions in the GMI very soon.  Bottom line–I am becoming more defensive and will go short or in cash if the indexes do not bounce soon.

Irx914 The best news I have to offer is that the short term interest rate indicator is showing unusual weakness–suggesting that traders think the Fed may have some good news next week.

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GMI: +6 No change in trend; GOOG, XWG, GLW, SWN

Even though the markets declined Tuesday, I find no change in trend.  Only 32% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, compared to 21% of the S&P 500 stocks and 17% of the Dow 30 stocks.  There were 155 new yearly highs and and only 34 new lows. Gmi913  78% of the stocks that hit new highs 10 days ago closed higher Tuesday than 10 days earlier.  And stocks in a short term up-trend rose to 56%.  Tuesday was day 6 (U-6) in the QQQQ up-trend…….

Even on this weak day, GOOG managed to rise and came close to its all-time high.  XWG and GLW and SWN also rose.  XWG is showing some high volume up days–worth watching, especially if it breaks 14.75. (I own GOOG, GLW and XWG.)

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