IBD Meetup tonight; GMI rises to +3; Moderating interest rates?

A small group (about 7) attended the IBD Meetup tonight.  Attendance usually falls off when people become disillusioned with a declining market.  What was surprising to me was that although most attendees were confused by or hurting from the current market environment, no one (except me) was considering selling stocks short.  While a few were mainly in cash, all were actively trying to find stocks to buy.  This sentiment suggests to me that the market has further to fall.  When everyone wants to short stocks, I will be looking for a bottom……………….

Surprisingly, the GMI actually increased one point as of Wednesday’s close.  Gmi824This is because there were 123 new yearly highs. On the other hand, the percentage of stocks closing above their 10 week averages fell below 50%, to 47%.  This is the lowest percentage since I began tabulating it on June 16.  More ominous, all three ETF indexes (DIA, QQQQ and SPY) closed below their 50 day averages, and all on increased volume…………….

I did find one possible ray of hope. Tlt824  I am not sure what it means, but all of my interest rate indicators (short and long term) are suggesting some moderation in longer term interest rates.  For example, TLT, which tracks 20+ year treasuries, has broken above its 30 day average and the 10 day has actually crossed above the 30 day average.  Rising prices here indicate lower interest rates.  (Similar patterns can be found for IRF and SHY).  Is this simply a retreat to the safety of U.S. securities or does it represent some moderation in the pressures for future rate hikes?…………………………

Regardless, I am now almost 100% in cash in my IRA.  This market is too treacherous and enigmatic for me to trade. 

Please send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

Market still trendless; GMI: +2; DIA closes below its 50 day; IBD Meetup tonight

While the market weakened Tuesday, it refused to cave in.  Gmi823 The GMI remains at +2, but there are positive and negative signs in this market.  There were 90 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks, very close to the 100 needed to turn that indicator positive.  But there were also 36 new lows, the most since June 27.  The percentage of stocks in a short term up-trend rose to 26%, up from a low of 20% last Thursday. The QQQQ is in its 6th day of decline (D-6).  The DIA closed below its 50 day average for the first time since July 7.  However, the SPY and QQQQ held above their 50 day averages.  Only 23% of the Dow 30 stocks advanced, compared to 34% of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 stocks.

The market still has not chosen a definite direction.  My IRA remains  mostly in cash with a few puts, but I remain ready to hop on the train when a real trend develops.  Wednesday evening is the IBD Meetup.  I am interested in assessing the members’ sentiment towards this market.

Please send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

The standoff continues; GMI: +2; IBD 100 curse?

Monday was a standoff.  The market had every opportunity to rise or fall  but basically closed where it began the day. Gmi822_1  The GMI remains at +2.  A number of my indicators did get stronger Monday, however.  There were 88 new yearly highs and only 20 new lows.  Stocks in a short term up-trend increased to 24% and now 52% of stocks in my universe of 4,000 stocks closed above their 10 week average. 56% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, 58% of the S&P 500 stocks and 53% of the Dow 30 stocks.

I cannot stress enough the need to be patient now.  The market will break either way soon, and it is important not to become attached to the bear or bull case.  We need to wait until the market tips its hand and react accordingly………………….

Today, www.thekirkreport.com, an invaluable source of market news, posted a link suggesting that stocks at the top of the IBD 100 list make good short sale candidates.  I think this article about the "curse" of the IBD 100 deserves our attention.  I have often thought that by the time IBD ranks a stock very highly, it is too late to buy.  But is it a good short? Check it out for yourself……..

Please send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.