GMI: +3; Dow stocks strong, growth stocks weak; watch your neck

The GMI weakened on Friday to +3.  I was pretty worn down by the large drops in growth stocks last week.  Gmi0310_1 I did not realize until this weekend that the IBD growth mutual fund index has been below its 50 day average for much of last week.  So subtract one point from the GMI for each day last week.  The bottom line is that if the growth mutual fund managers cannot do well buying growth stocks, neither can I.  Friday was the fourth day in the short term decline in the QQQQ.  Still, 67% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced, along with 82% of the S&P 500 stocks and 93% of the Dow 30 stocks.  The GMI-S rose a little to 38, although all of the QQQQ indicators remain negative.  The small and mid cap stocks had been a ray of sunshine in this market.  But as the WPM shows, these stocks weakened last week.  Wpm0310 The QQQQ, MDY and IJR indexes all closed below their 30 day averages, as did the majority of their component stocks.  Only the DIA stocks strengthened last week.  Nevertheless, all five indexes and their component stocks remained above their longer term 30 week averages.  A market like this is so divided and trendless, that it may be better to be on the sidelines.  But with everyone pointing out the head and shoulders top in the QQQQ, we could be fooled by a surprise rally in the tech stocks this week.  We just shouldn’t stick our necks out too far.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: +5; Indicators still weakening

The GMI rose one to +5 because there were more than 100 new highs on Thursday in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  But the short term GMI-S fell to 25.  The Daily SPY Index and even the weekly QQQQ Index are close to turning negative.  My indicators continue to weaken and the QQQQ looks like a head and shoulders top is almost complete.  A close below the neck line, around 40, would signal a serious decline.  Gmi0309 Thursday was the third day in the current short term QQQQ down trend.  Between 27-37% of the stocks in the QQQQ, SPY and DIA rose on Thursday.  Only 28% of stocks are in a short term up trend and for the first time since November 8, fewer than one half of stocks (47%) closed above their 10 week averages.  This is not a time for brave longs.  I am raising cash and/or going short. 

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: +4; Market still weakening; 2 weak sectors

The GMI remained at +4.  There were only 63 new highs Wednesday and an equal number of new lows.  Gmi0308 Only 31% of the stocks that hit a new high ten days ago closed higher than they did ten days ago. Most of my indicators declined.  39%  of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose along with 54% of the S&P 500 stocks and 60% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Only 4% of the stocks that doubled the past year hit a new high and only 52% of the stocks in my universe of 4,000 closed above their 10 week averages.  Only 32% of stocks remain in a short term up trend. The percentage of stocks within 5% of a new high fell to 22%.  Wednesday was the second day of the QQQQ short term down trend (D-2)………..

Seven of the 63 new lows on Wednesday were housing stocks and seven were radio or TV broadcasting stocks.  Maybe these sectors are a good place to search for shorts.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.