The market up-trend is in place and I am almost 100% invested on the long side in my trading IRA. I am also largely invested in mutual funds in my university pension. This is the time to ride the train and not to fight it. No one knows when the up-trend will end. The idea is to ride it and have sufficient stop losses in place to exit if the trend should convincingly reverse. The GMI is at 5 of 6, having been at 6 at Thursday’s close. There were less than 100 new highs (74) in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday, bringing it down to 5. I suspect we will be back to 6 this week. Meanwhile, 84% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks had their MACD close above its signal line, a nice show of strength. The Worden T2108 Indicator is at 88%, near the top of the range it typically reaches. But it can stay above 80% for months.
Many of you have requested that I post a chart showing the recent performance of the GMI over the past year. The GMI, though not perfect, has successfully kept me on the right side of the market through the 2000-2002 and 2008 bear market declines. I simply go to cash in my university pension and trade the short side in my IRA once the GMI starts to remain consistently below 3. In order to show the GMI over time, I have plotted a weekly chart with the GMI changes for the last day of each week.
The GMI is back to 5 (of 6) and the GMI-R to 9 (of 10). There were 30 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Wednesday. Stocks on my IBD 100 lists at new highs include: TSRA, LL, SYNA, STAR, VPRT, URS, HDB, ICUI, MTXX, NTES and NVEC. I am selling puts on strong stocks and ETF’s in the anticipation that they will expire worthless on June 20. I have begun to dollar cost average my university pension funds back into this market. The trend of the QQQQ, SPY and DIA remain up.