I have written a number of times that one can ignore the fundamentals and all of the media pundits and just let the market tell us what it is likely to do. When you are crossing the street and a truck comes bearing down on you at high speed, you should not argue with the fact that it is there. You should not wait in the street for the truck to stop and/or exclaim incredulously that it should not be there. One needs to move quickly and get out of the way or jump on board the truck, if that is the goal.
I have been in cash for all of the major declines since 1995. (I also avoided the 1987 debacle.) I have never been caught married to my long positions, arguing with the market or hoping that a decline will end. No one can detect a bottom until sometime after it has occurred. Why do people look to experts to predict the market when none of them predicted the current decline! Experts are really great at explaining to us after the fact, all of the reasons why the market declined. When someone can tell me the reasons before the decline occurs, then I will listen.
So, what can the market tell us about how bear markets have ended? I showed you several posts ago that the current market is tracking somewhere between the 1929-1932 and 1974 bear markets. How did these huge declines end? It turns out that they showed amazingly similar characteristics.