62nd day of $QQQ short term up-trend


I think this QQQ short term up-trend is getting tired. From 2006-2013, only 4% of the QQQ short term up-trends lasted more than 50 days–the longest was 88 days. We have now reached 62 days, U-62 in the table below. In addition, almost one half of the NASDAQ 100 stocks traded above their upper daily 15.2 Bollinger Bands on Friday (as did DIA, SPY and QQQ), a sign of an overbought condition. However, the possible end of the short term up-trend is not necessarily an ominous sign. About 40% of the QQQ short term down-trends lasted 5 days or less. So I am not suggesting a major decline, only a likely hiccup. I am content to hold some cash and to remain very defensive and vigilant as we get into this month. The longer term trend remains up, as evidenced by the GMI = 5 (of 6) and its being on a Green signal.

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