Stock Market Technical Indicators & Analysis
Dr. Wish The GMI rose one to 2 and the GMI-R to 4. There were many new lows on Tuesday, 226, in my universe of 4,000 stocks. There were only 48 new highs. RIMM continued to decline, but GOOG and AAPL held up. Tuesday was the 17th day of the current QQQQ down-trend. The Worden T2108 is at 26%. The stand-off between bulls and bears continues and I am content to watch from the sidelines.
The GMI fell back to 1 and the GMI-R is now at 3. There were 69 new highs and 118 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Monday. One of the tech leaders, RIMM, broke badly–not a good sign. AAPL and GOOG also declined, but not greatly. If these leaders break down, it is a serious omen for the general market. 34% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are now above their 30 day averages, up from 3% on November 26. Monday was the sixteenth day in the current QQQQ short term down-trend. We should know in a few days whether this rally will turn the trend up or fail. I prefer to be mainly in cash until the GMI rises to above 3.
The GMI moved down from 2 to 1+ (of 6) and the GMI-R rose from 4 to 4+ (of 10). Another up day in the SPY will make the Daily SPY Index turn positive. 
The GMI-R is stronger than the GMI because it has a number of shorter term indicators that can detect a change in trend earlier. The Worden T2108 Indicator is now at 29%, up from a low of 13% and well out of the area where declines tend to end. Moreover, 63% of the 16 short term indicators for four indexes (DIA, QQQQ, SPY, IJR) that make up the GMI-S are now positive. On Friday the QQQQ completed the 15th day of its short term down-trend (D-15).
So where do I stand on the current market trend? Evidence on the side of a possible end to the current decline in the QQQQ are: 1) MACD for the daily QQQQ has had a bullish cross of its signal line; 2) T2108 indicator is rising out of extreme lows; 3) GMI-R is 4+; GMI-S is now 63%; and 4) leading growth stocks (AAPL, RIMM, ISRG, BIDU) are holding up. On the side of a continuing decline are: 1) GMI is 1+, reflecting a small number of new highs, a weak daily QQQQ trend, a weak IBD growth mutual fund trend; 2) the QQQQ remains below its 10 week average; and 3) the QQQQ has just bounced down off of resistance at the 30 day average. To sum up, it looks like the most sensitive indicators are starting to turn up, but the relatively longer term trend indicators are still declining. Statistically, this is how turnarounds must unfold. The prudent thing to do is to wait a little longer to see whether the longer term indicators follow suit and start to rise. The jury is still out for me…..
If this rally has staying power, I should begin to look at stocks that might lead an up-trend. My TC2007 scan yielded the following rocket stocks that might be among the leaders: MTL, TRA, CF, MOS, HMSY, GEOY, ATRO, MICC, SYNA, ISRG, WGOV. All of these stocks have strong technical patterns plus recent quarterly earnings increases of at least 100% and revenue growth of 20+%. Six of the eleven have appeared on one of the IBD100 lists I have followed during the past year. I will keep an eye on these stocks in case this up-trend continues.
See my disclaimers below.