GMI: 1; UltraShort ETFs shine

Last week I received an email from my brokerage company saying that they noticed my account was in cash and, would I like their help in investing my money.  I have been safely in money market funds collecting interest, and they want to lure me back into this declining market.  The little guy doesn’t have a chance against the army of pros who think timing the market is impossible.  The Fox business shows on Sunday were also filled with pundits saying that we should scoop up the many bargains in this market. So, with the GMI at 1 and the majority of pundits looking for bargains, this is not the time for me to be long stocks….

I ran a scan using TC2007 to see which ETF’s did well since the S&P500 peaked on July 16.  Since that day, the S&P500 has declined  7.5%.  Was I surprised that in that same period a lot of Proshares UltraShort ETF’s climbed more than 20%.  These new inverse ETF’s go up when their relevant index declines.  The UltraShort ETF’s are designed to rise 2x as much as the relevant index falls.  So, look at the top 10 ETF’s (out of 551) since July 16:

It should be clear that during the time when the general market indexes were falling 5-7%, these UltraShort indexes rose 20% or more.  The weakness in real estate, basic materials and financials is to be expected. Toptenetfs But note that the market really stuck it to the "value" stocks.  This term is an oxymoron; value is a myth and only in the eyes of the beholder.  We should not get stuck holding onto declining value stocks, which may become even more valuable as they fall and fall and fall.  Bill O’Neil has said, all stocks are bad unless they are going up.  So, if I do not have  a margin account in which to short stocks or do not want to buy put options in my IRA, I can buy the UltraShort ETF’s and hopefully profit as other long term buy and hold investors wring their hands and curse the declining market.  Thus far, my IRA account has come through this decline unscathed, retaining all profits from the past year.

When will this decline end?  Nobody knows. But there will be plenty of time to go long after the turn is reflected in the GMI….

See my disclaimers below. 

GMI: 1; GMI-S: 6; D-3; Plenty of time to catch a new up-trend

The GMI is still one, and the GMI-S is 6.  Wednesday was the third day of the new QQQQ down-trend (D-3).  The Worden T2108 indicator is at 19, up from a low of 15 last Friday.  On Wednesday, there were 42 new highs and 435 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Since the QQQQ peaked on 7/19, the index has fallen 4.8%, and 87% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have declined, 57% are down more than 5%.  Why fight these odds? I am in cash or short.

This is a great time to sit back, enjoy a summer vacation, and ride the down-trend or wait for a turn. The last QQQQ up-trend lasted 80 days.  There were plenty of gains to be made even if  one missed the turn on April 3.  For example, from April 18 (U-11, the 11th day in the new up-trend) to July 19, the QQQQ rose 11.8% and 56% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose 5% or more; 30% rose 15% or more.  One does not have to catch the beginning of a genuine up-trend to profit in the stock market.  It is best to be patient and wait for the GMI to rise above 3.