Dr. Wish

GMI: +5; GMI-S falls to 56; GLD

@ 12:44 pm

I am posting after the open today, so I will not opine about today’s market.  I only want to provide you with Tuesday’s closing stats. The GMI remained steady at +5, but the GMI-S fell to 56.  This drop occurred because the Nasdaq 100 short term indicators are all negative and because all of the other indexes closed below their 10 day averages.  Closing below the 10 day average is not a sign of huge weakness.  Gmi0228 Typically, consecutive closes above the 10 day average occur during sustained rises.  A stock or index can close below this average and still be in a sustained rise, just rising at a slower rate.  So, the decline in the GMI-S just indicates, for now, a slowing in the rise of these indexes.  A return above the 10 day  average by these indexes would indicate to me a resumption of a stronger short term up trend .  The GMI-L is still at 94, showing that all of these indexes remain in a longer term up trend.  On Tuesday, only 21% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, along with 12% of the S&P 500 stocks and 10% of the Dow 30 stocks.  There were still 150 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  The percentage of stocks in a short term up trend rose to 53% , but the percentage that closed above their 10 day averages for the past four days declined to 38%, another indication of the slowing of the rises in these stocks……….

I have been buying the gold ETF, GLD, as it appears to have bounced off of its rising 30 day moving average.  In the recent past, such bounces have occurred at the beginning of profitable rises.  I always place a stop loss below the bounce to protect me against a decline.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI:+5; GMI-S: 88; QQQQ turning? Some strong stocks

@ 12:01 am

Monday was another strong day.  74% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, along with 61% of the S&P 500 stocks and 63% of the Dow 30 stocks.  There were 432 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  51% of the stocks are in a short term up trend and 71% closed above their 10 week averages.  Gmi0227 34% of stocks closed within 5% of their 52 week highs.  The GMI was +5, but the Daily QQQQ Index was too close to call.  One more up day will turn it definitely positive.  I therefore tentatively called Monday the sixteenth day in the QQQQ short term down trend.  The GMI is very close to turning +6.  The GMI-L is now a perfect 100 and the GMI-S is at 88.  A lot of stocks are turning up on high volume.  Check out: ALKS, MLNM, FIX, WIBC, PWR,  ECLP, CLZR, KG, REGN, ARNA, AMTD. A lot of biotech and drug stocks seem to be doing well.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: +5; The rally people love to hate

@ 12:01 am

The GMI remains at +5, with only the Daily QQQQ Index still negative. There were 243 yearly highs Gmi0224in my universe of 4,000 stocks and 139 successful 10 day new highs (stocks that hit a new high ten days ago and that closed higher on Friday than they did 10 days earlier).    69% of stocks closed above their 10 week averages and 48% are in a short term up trend.  A full one third of stocks are within 5% of their 52 week highs. 60% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday, along with 56% of the S&P 500 stocks and 53% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Friday was the fifteenth day in the QQQQ short term down trend (D-15).  But the MACD is very close to reversing, suggesting underlying strength in this index.

The WPM shows the weak performance of the Nasdaq 100 stocks relative to the other four indexes. Wpm0224 Only the QQQQ closed below its 30 day average and only 49% of its component stocks closed above their 30 day averages. In contrast, 60-68% of the components of the other four indexes closed above their 30 day averages.  All five indexes closed above their longer term 30 week averages and almost 70% of the components of all indexes but the Nasdaq 100 (59%) closed above their 30 week averages.  The midcap stocks appear to be most likely to be in short and long term up trends……..

The reluctance of the pundits to accept the recent up trends in most of the indexes is striking and makes me think that this is the rally that people love to hate.  Four of the five indexes reviewed above are in short term up trends and very close to their yearly highs. And even the Nasdaq 100 remains in a longer term up trend with the rest of the indexes.  So why has the sentiment of investment newsletters become more bearish in the past few weeks?  According to IBD, the Investors Intelligence reading is now 45.3% bullish and 29.5% bearish.  In contrast, more than 60% were bullish in early January when this rally began and only about 20% were bearish.  Do the newsletter writers actually become less bullish as the market rises?  I thought sentiment was typically a contrary indicator with people being most bullish at the top, after a rise.  Furthermore, the NYSE advance/decline line keeps hitting recovery highs and the put/call ratio is a relatively high .76.  Maybe everyone is just spooked by the semi-inverted yield curve and the threat of terrorism and behave as if the economy and the market must swoon.  I just hate to denigrate this market when there appears to be so much agreement that it must decline–even in the face of the considerable technical evidence to the contrary……….

 

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.