GMI: 1; GMI-R:1; Trend is down; in cash or short

Don’t try to fight the tide.  The GMI (and GMI-R) is now one and the QQQQ is in its first day of a short term down-trend (D-1). Gmi1109 (Click on chart to enlarge.) The QQQQ as well as the SPY are now below their 10 week averages.  I rarely make money trading growth stocks when the QQQQ is below its 10 week.  In addition, the Worden T2108 indicator is now at 26%, in bearish territory but not low enough to be in bottoming territory. The major indexes are now all in down-trends.  And it looks to me like this decline is just beginning, not near its end.

This chart shows changes in the GMI over the past few months.  Gmiperf1109 (Click on chart to enlarge.)  Note that the QQQQ has just broken below its 30 day average (red line) and that the 10 day average (blue dotted line), while declining, has yet to close below the 30 day.  Looking back to the decline last August we can see a lot more damage then than now.  While there is no guarantee that the current decline will last as long as the one last August, it could be worse.  Under these conditions it makes no sense to be long stocks.  Look how long we had last September to jump on board the up-trend, well after the August bottom.  It makes much more sense to wait for a bottom to be in place before committing funds.  Trend followers follow trends, they do not, cannot, anticipate them.  To fight this down-trend by owning stocks is to be reduced to the level of gambling.  Much better, and more likely to profit, is to wait and jump on the train once it has turned.

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GMI:3+; GMI-R: 4+; BEGINNING a major decline?; Mainly in cash

Well, the QQQQ finally got in synch with the rest of the market on Thursday.  There were 519 new lows and 89 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  The last time we had as many new lows was on August 16 (556) at the bottom of last summer’s decline.  But wait a minute.  The QQQQ is just about to break its up-trend–Thursday is its first close below the critical 30 day average since August 28.  I usually wait for one more such close to turn my Daily QQQQ indicator negative, hence the GMI  and GMI-R readings with a "+. " And the IBD growth mutual fund index has just closed on its 50 day average and could pierce it today.  In addition, the Worden T2108 indicator is still above bottoming territory (now 31% versus 11% last August) and 26% of the stocks in my universe are in an up-trend compared with just 11% at the bottom in August. 

All of these indicators are clearly above the extreme low readings that we had last August, suggesting to me that this new decline in the QQQQ may turn vicious and do a lot more damage than we experienced during last August’s decline.  I therefore sold everything on Thursday and bought a little of the QQQQ inverse ETF, QID, that rises twice as much as the QQQQ falls.  This is the time for me to be on the side-lines, mainly in cash.

GMI: 5; GMI-R: 60%; QQQQ breakdown coming?

Well, the split market we have been talking about may be about to end–but not yet.  The GMI is still 5 but the GMI-R is at 60%.  Gmi1107 The QQQQ is right on support and another decline could turn my indicators negative.  Tuesday was the 49th day of the current QQQQ up-trend.   The QQQQ has closed the past 10 weeks above its critical 10 week average, but the SPY is now below its 10 week average.  Only 13% of my 16 short term indicators for the QQQQ, SPY, DIA and IJR are positive.  The Worden T2108 indicator is now down to 31%, in bear territory for NYSE stocks.

So, what to do?  I took some funds off the table today.  Why try to be a hero when so many of the banks and large financial stocks and the dollar are in trouble? Look for a put/call ratio (1.03 Wednesday in IBD) well above 1.0 for a short term bounce.