3rd day of QQQ short term up-trend; T2108 = 82%; DDD and 3D printing

GMI6/6
GMI-25/9
T210882%

With the T2108 indicator at 82%, I remain invested long, but remain ever cautious.   This weekly chart of the T2108 shows that this pendulum of the market does not tend to go much higher before it reverses, but it can stay high for a few weeks. The red horizontal line is drawn at 90%, where a few rallies have managed to reach since 1986 when the indicator was made available by Worden.   The last time the T2108 approached 90% was in 2009 during the rebound from the panic decline in 2008. At the depths of the 2008 decline, the T2108 had bottomed at 1.2%, a level not seen since the 1987 market debacle (at .5%). Given that the market is not coming back from a huge decline, the 80-85% level may be as far as this market will rally. I remember a lot of markets that topped out in January, and this is a year of potential weakness coming after a presidential election…….

A long time ago Judy, my stock buddy and extraordinary concept stock  picker, told me about the exciting 3D printing concept.  She talked about DDD and SSYS.  I posted about these companies last May. DDD was around $25 and SSYS around $47.  DDD closed Friday at $58.84 and SSYS at $82.25.  Both stocks  have  been gaining strength throughout the fiscal cliff  hysteria.    I think these companies still have potential and are worth researching.  3D printing is an exciting concept that many no little about. DDD has been high on the IBD50 list many times, showing the fallacy of the common assertion that stocks on that list are too late to buy. I own some DDD. Check out this weekly chart of DDD at an all-time high….

The GMI table is presented below. Both the SPY and QQQ have now closed above their critical 10 week averages.

 

 

GMI flashes “Sell”

GMI2/6
GMI-21/9
T210852%

With the GMI having registered less than 3 for two consecutive days, it has now flashed a Sell signal.   Friday was also the second day of the new QQQ short term down-trend.  I am in cash in my IRA and margin accounts.   I want to see what happens with the resolution of the fiscal cliff negotiations before I re-renter the market. Because of the limitations on trading, I am still 100% invested in mutual funds in my university pension–for now. Only two of the four oversold market indicators I watch are oversold, indicating this market could fall further. One of them, the Worden T2108 indicator, is at 52%, in neutral territory.

Critical week to come; QQQ on support

GMI5/6
GMI-23/9
T210865%

With the GMI at 5 and still on a buy signal, I would like to remain somewhat bullish. I do not like to pay attention to the news or politics when assessing the market trend.   However, we all know that this fiscal cliff hysteria could cause some huge moves between now and New Years. The drop in the QQQ on Friday was large and sudden and formed a gap below Thursday’s range.   Friday was the 19th day of the current QQQ short term up-trend.   But the up-trend is in jeopardy.   This daily chart of the QQQ   shows some key characteristics. Arrow 1 shows that on Friday the QQQ came close to the bottom of the Bollinger Band range that I follow (15,2) and bounced up off of the critical 30 day moving average (red line). The 30 day average is now rising, an important sign. The gray background highlights the range of the Bollinger Band. Arrow 2 shows the top of the Bollinger Band range where I would suspect any rise might meet resistance.   Note that 3 recent rises have stopped at the upper Bollinger Band (BB). Any rise in the QQQ this week will likely meet resistance around 66.60.   If the QQQ instead falls through the 30 day average and the lower BB, I would suspect a major decline and begin to exit my long positions. The QQQ is therefore facing a critical test of its short term up-trend.

The GMI remains at 5, but the more sensitive GMI-2 is at 3, reflecting weakness. The technically much stronger SPY has closed above its critical 10 week average for 4 weeks, but the QQQ has just crossed above its 10 week average. The Worden T2108, at 65%, is in neutral territory. 67% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed with their MACD above its signal line, a measure of short term strength. Extreme caution is called for.