Jesse Livermore might say, time to go fishing….. Darvas would call it a market for the birds. O’Neil would stay away, as I suspect would Minervini. And the perspicacious and man of few tweets, David Ryan, said on August 24:
General Market Index (GMI) table
Blog Post: Day 7 of $QQQ short term up-trend; 69 US new highs and 81 lows; $SPY is back below its 10 week average and $QQQ is just above its; Big week for $ORCL coming up, see weekly chart
ORCL had a GLB (green line break-out) to an ATH (all-time high) in June on above average volume. It has then consolidated for 12 weeks. On Monday it will report earnings and a rise above 127.54 with above average volume to an ATH would be worth monitoring. ORCL has already doubled its yearly low and MarketSmith indicates it has a comp rating=95 and RS=96. See weekly chart below. Two weeks ago ORCL bounced up off of its 10 week average (purple dotted line). Note that its 4wk avg>10 wk avg >30 wk avg, a sign of a powerful Stage 2 up-trend. When I miss a GLB, I may look to buy after a bounce up off of the 10 week or 4wk average. Study this chart for these set-ups. A green bar on this chart shows a bounce up off of a rising 4 week average that is also above its 10 week average which is above its 30 week average (30 week average is solid red line).
Blog Post: Day 3 of $QQQ short term up-trend; 166 new US highs, 33 lows and 59 at ATH; my 10:30 weekly charts of $QQQ and $SPY show continuing Stage 2 up-trends
Many fear a weak September, especially with a government shut-down on the horizon. But the market may defy all and rise anyway. The QQQ short term trend count is now up and the longer term GMI is Green, see the GMI table below. I bought a little TQQQ last week and will add more if the new QQQ short term up-trend holds. I am more confident of a new short term up-trend once it holds for 5 days. My analyses show that about one quarter of new QQQ short term up-trends end within 5 days, so I add more TQQQ very slowly. The last short term up-trend lasted for 70 days and TQQQ ran up +26%. TQQQ climbed much higher than that if one had sold before the up-trend actually ended.
This 10:30 weekly chart shows QQQ in a continuing up-trend. Note that QQQ recently closed (gray line) back above its 10 week average (dotted line). The 10 week average has been rising above the 30 week average for 27 straight weeks, see GMI table below, and QQQ remains in a Weinstein Stage 2 up-trend. So is SPY.
