Stock Market Technical Indicators & Analysis
A few days ago I told you when VRNS had a GLB (green line break-out) to an ATH (all-time high). This daily chart shows that VRNS has held nicely since then.
Last week, NIO had a GLB on its highest weekly trading volume ever. Check out this weekly chart. Will it continue rising like a rocket?
The GMI remains at 6 (of 6).
I closed out my short positions and am largely in cash until we get a resolution regarding the Dow 30 stocks. $DIA is up against its critical declining 30 week average (red line in weekly chart below). Until we get a firm close above this average, I remain super cautious. The $SPY is not much better off than the DIA. However, the one index that remains in a strong up-trend is the $QQQ.That index ETF contains many of the growth stocks that refuse to break down. If DIA can retake its green line, I think I will get back into this market. So it comes down to this question: Is the DIA a leader or a laggard in terms of the market’s trend? We shall find our soon. But remember that August and September are typically weaker months and then comes November 4, US election day.
For those looking for break outs, VRNS had a GLB (green line break-out to an all-time high) last week. I sell a GLB immediately if it closes back below its green line. If it re-takes it I buy it back. Some of those are my best trades.
I successfully avoided the 2000 and 2008 market debacles by getting out when the major indexes closed below their declining 30 week averages. Such a pattern could indicate the beginning of a Weinstein Stage IV decline. The DIA and SPY have now closed below their declining 30 week averages.
Here is DIA in 2007-8 top.
And QQQ in 2000.
The QQQ is the strongest of the 3 index ETFs and is still above its rising 30 week average. If it closes back below its green line, it would be a sign of a failed GLB and major technical weakness.
I am too near retirement and therefore a chicken. So I pulled all of my money out of the market on Friday. It is nice to be on the sidelines. When my indicators look good again, I will re-enter the market. I am short in my trading account with a small position in the 3x inverse ETF, SDOW, and GLD. Be careful. The worst of the decline may be yet to come.
