IBD100

GMI: 1+; GMI-R: 4+; My take on the market; some possible leaders

@ 12:01 am

The GMI moved down from 2 to 1+ (of 6) and the GMI-R rose from 4 to 4+ (of 10).  Another up day in the SPY will make the Daily SPY Index turn positive. Gmi1130 The GMI-R is stronger than the GMI because it has a number of shorter term indicators that can detect a change in trend earlier.  The Worden T2108 Indicator is now at 29%, up from a low of 13% and well out of the area where declines tend to end.  Moreover, 63% of the 16 short term indicators for four indexes (DIA, QQQQ, SPY, IJR) that make up the GMI-S are now positive. On Friday the QQQQ completed the 15th day of its short term down-trend (D-15).

So where do I stand on the current market trend?  Evidence on the side of a possible end to the current decline in the QQQQ are: 1) MACD for the daily QQQQ has had a bullish cross of its signal line; 2) T2108 indicator is rising out of extreme lows; 3) GMI-R is 4+; GMI-S is now 63%; and 4) leading growth stocks  (AAPL, RIMM, ISRG, BIDU) are holding up.  On the side of a continuing decline are: 1) GMI is 1+, reflecting a small number of new highs, a weak daily QQQQ trend, a weak IBD growth mutual fund trend; 2) the QQQQ remains below its 10 week average; and 3) the QQQQ has just bounced down off of resistance at the 30 day average. To sum up, it looks like the most sensitive indicators are starting to turn up, but the relatively longer term trend indicators are still declining.  Statistically, this is how turnarounds must unfold.  The prudent thing to do is to wait a little longer to see whether the longer term indicators follow suit and start to rise. The jury is still out for me…..

If this rally has staying power, I should begin to look at stocks that might lead an up-trend.  My TC2007 scan yielded the following rocket stocks that might be among the leaders: MTL, TRA, CF, MOS, HMSY, GEOY, ATRO, MICC, SYNA, ISRG, WGOV.  All of these stocks have strong technical patterns plus recent quarterly earnings increases of at least 100% and revenue growth of 20+%.  Six of the eleven have appeared on one of the IBD100 lists I have followed during the past year. I will keep an eye on these stocks in case this up-trend continues.

See my disclaimers below.

GMI: 6; GMI-R: 10; 17 IBD100 stocks at new highs

@ 12:01 am

The GMI is at the maximum of 6 and the GMI-R is at 100%.  There were 326 new highs and 85 new lows in  my universe of 4,000 stocks on Wednesday.  83%-93% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced. Seventeen of the stocks on the IBD100 list from October 15 hit a new high:  MA,HDB,ATW,CMG,POT,RIO,SYNA,SID,SDA,FMCN,GOOG, AAPL,AIRM,MBT,ABB,TEF, and PAY.  Wednesday was the 44th day of the current QQQQ short term up-trend.  I am mainly in the QLD and holding stocks on which I have written calls.

GMI: 6 (of 6); GMI-R: 10 (of 10); Riding the up-trend; IBD 100 winners

@ 12:01 am

The GMI returned to a maximum reading of 6 and the GMI-R is now 100%.  There were 377 new highs and 78 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Monday.  Monday was the 42nd day in the current QQQQ short term up-trend and I have a large position in the QLD, which mimics the QQQQ.  I am also writing covered calls again on rising IBD 100 stocks.  I pay attention to the movement of the market and ignore the pundits and the news.  When a car is heading towards me I don’t argue with it or complain that it is not supposed to be there.  I must react to what is occurring.  Similarly, I must ride the current market up-trend until it changes.  And we are approaching the time of the year (November to April) when most market gains have occurred…….

One third of the stocks on the IBD 100 list published on October 15 hit a new high on Monday.  Among these, the largest gainers were:  FMCN, FTK, EDU, DSX, DRYS, VIP, CTRP, HDB, CMED, and RIO.  These ten stocks each rose 4% or more on Monday.  Note that while 33% of the IBD100 stocks from October 15 hit a new high, only 8% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and 7% of the S&P 500 stocks did so.  Who said that stocks play dead after they appear on the IBD100 list???!!

See my disclaimers below.