The Bear Blinked, TZOO and Rockets–WW-GMI: +2

Things held today and the GMI rose to +2 (click on chart to enlarge).  Index51105 The Daily SPY index turned positive again.  There were only 35 stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago and closed higher today than they closed 10 days ago when they hit their new highs.  However, these 35 successful new highs represent 71% of the 49 stocks that hit new highs 10 days ago.  The fact that 71% of the new highs increased in value suggests strength in new highs.  The median increase of these 35 successful new highs over the past 10 days was +3.18% (meaning 1/2 of the 35 stocks increased more than 3.18%) and the increases ranged from +.14% to +22.19%.  The biggest gainer was our old friend, NSI (see post on 5/09/05), which hit a new high again today. Other successful 10 day new high large gainers are:  TZIX, GLW, ENWV, ITRI, LIFC, all of which gained at least 10% in the past 10 days.

The moral of the story is if we bought a stock breaking to new highs 10 days ago, we had a 71% chance of making a profit through today. With careful attention to these companies’ profiles and chart patterns, maybe we could even have selected one of the stocks that climbed double digits! (in 10 days)

A lot of the growth stocks I have been following acted well today.  GOOG, IVGN, NSI and CRYP all hit new highs today (I own some of these).  And even some of the boring large cap stocks like UPS, FNM, UTX, INTC, PG, AXP, C, PFE and QCOM seem to be turning. Interest511 This may be why the SPY has been relatively strong.  And the short term interest rate index we have been following has stopped rising. The Fed may be hibernating, and this upturn could be for real.

I have been telling you that when a change in trend occurs the indicators will often go back and forth until the turn has stabilized.  So, the GMI could turn down again.  In this type of market it is a good idea to stay mainly in cash and just nibble at a few stocks or the ETF’s that track market indexes (SPY,QQQQ,DIA).  Then, if the market declines, we can get out with minimal losses. If the rise is real we will have time to jump on board.

One of my stocks declined today and then bounced back with the market.  I was stopped out during the decline (my stop loss price was triggered and I was automatically sold out).  When the market and the stock came back, I bought my stock back at the end of the day and put a new stop loss order in below today’s low price.  Remember yesterday I said that the hobo must jump back on the train if it resumes in the direction he wanted to travel?  So, without emotion, I merely jumped back on the stock.  If I am wrong I will be stopped out again.  I have profited many times by buying back a stock that I have been scared out of.  The temporary decline often sets up a new rise. If you cannot accept a lot of small losses, you should not play this game.

Last night I talked to you about the rocket, TASR, which I successfully traded when it was rising to new highs.  Another rocket of the past year is TZOO. Tzoo I hope no one is buying this "bargain." From April through November 2004, TZOO climbed from $8 to $105.  That is a 13x increase in about 7 months.  I counted 14 weeks in which the stock made a new high during this period. The first time TZOO doubled took 3 weeks.  It took 13 weeks to double again, and then 10 weeks to double again.  Now maybe you  can see why I say that to find a stock that will double in a short time, find one that has already doubled in a short time. (see strategy post, 4/30/05)

So many people want to buy rockets but are afraid to buy a stock that is doubling and hitting new highs.  But that is how you find rockets!  Want to know some stocks that have doubled in the past 15 weeks?  Using the TC2005 program, I scanned my entire universe of almost 4,000 stocks in about 10 seconds and found the following 6 stocks:  ABLE, NSI, BOOM, DSTI, GEOI and FORD.  All of these stocks at least doubled in the past 15 weeks and are near their all-time highs.

These are not recommendations for purchase.  They are recommendations for further research and monitoring.  Do your own homework and if you buy stocks like these you should make small pilot buys and protect yourself with immediate sell stops. Remember, this market is not out of the woods yet and the bear is still stalking it. It is much more profitable to purchase rockets when the market trend is on our side. Let’s be patient.

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Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now.  I am not providing recommendations for you to follow.  My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs.  While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog.  Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market,  and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment.  See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.

2 thoughts on “The Bear Blinked, TZOO and Rockets–WW-GMI: +2”

  1. 10 days ago, the NASDAQ finished at 1904. Today, it finished at 1971: an increase of 3.5 percent. This is exactly the same median return that was earned on the portfolio of stocks that hit 52 week highs 10 days ago. I’m not knocking your theory cause I love reading your blog and your strategy has clearly worked in the past, but the example that you cite doesn’t strike me as particularly convincing.

  2. Hi there,

    I am an overseas reader (of both yours and kirk’s blogs), I find it amusing to note that despite the internet and globalization, geography still makes a great difference.

    While the US markets have been looking for a clear direction since the beginning of 2005, the market here in Tel-Aviv has detached itself and have been trending up constantly since Sep-2003 (checkout TA100 index).

    My point is that although you are constantly screening a universe of 4,000 stocks, obviously there are opportunities that seem to escape your radar 😉

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