To my visitors: I am only one trader, not a guru, and not a financial advisor. I am presenting my own opinions and my own experiences and people are welcome to decide for themselves what, if anything, on this site is of value to them. Please refer to the additional comments, highlighted in red, at the end of this post.
Well, things held today with the GMI remaining at +5. There were only 116 new highs in my universe of 4.000 stocks, the lowest number in 11 days. However, 70% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, along with 63% of the S&P 500 stocks and 50% of the Dow 30 stocks. The QQQQ uptrend is in its 24th trading day (U-24). However, the QQQQ has completed its 3rd day below its 10 day moving average–an ominous sign (see dotted line on chart). A close tomorrow below 37.67 would begin to worry me.
I am therefore glad that I am holding "put insurance" (see yesterday’s post) on my most volatile positions (CME and GOOG). Both stocks went up today. I would not take on new positions until the QQQQ closes above its 10 day average, now at 38.12. The QQQQ closed today at 37.95. Sharply rising stocks, including the QQQQ index, tend to remain above their rising 10 day average. A close below the average may not be a sell signal, but it serves as a yellow light to me. One look at the chart above should convince you.
I am sometimes struck by how focused my comments are exclusively on price and volume trends. I think discussions about the Fed, world events, and other economic factors merely obfuscate the true nature of the market. As I have written before, if a truck is bearing down on me as I cross the street, I do not care why it is coming or whether it should be happening–I must react to the action immediately to survive.
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Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now. I am not providing recommendations for you to follow. My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs. While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog. Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market, and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment. See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.