This has been a great market to watch from the sidelines. The indexes are jumping above and below their key moving averages, signifying the lack of a consistent trend. The GMI remains at +1 with only the Weekly QQQQ Index positive. Very few (71) stocks hit new highs on Friday and there were only 15 successful 10 day new highs. Nevertheless, there was some improvement in the markets. The percentage of stocks in my universe of 4,000 that closed above their 10 week averages climbed 3, to 29%. And 52% of the stocks that have doubled in the past year closed above their 30 day averages. Almost as many stocks are within 5% of their yearly highs as their lows (11% vs. 14%). Friday was the second day in the QQQQ decline (D-2).
The WPM showed some strengthening last week. The largest improvement occurred in the Dow 30 stocks. It is the only index closing above its 30 day average, as did 67% of its component stocks. The components of the other 4 indexes showed large increases in the percentage of stocks closing above their 30 day averages. The QQQQ, MDY and IJR all closed above their 30 week averages, indicating some longer term strength. Almost one half of the stocks in all five indexes closed above their 30 week averages.
The bottom line is that there are some signs of general strengthening, but most indexes’ short term trends are still down. If the SPY and QQQQ can regain their 30 day indexes, I may be tempted to go long again.
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