GMI:6; GMI-S: 63; Ominous signs

The GMI is still 6, but the GMI-S fell 18, to 63.  The short term indicators for the small cap stocks (IJR) are almost all negative.  Only the Dow 30 stocks are holding up (DIA).  Only 24% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Monday, Gmi1218 along with 31% of the S&P 500 stocks and 57% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Even the stocks on the new IBD 100 list published on Monday were weak; 26% advanced, though 17 hit a new high during the day.

When I see the market leaders weaken, GOOG (-3.6%) and AAPL (-2.6%), I become concerned about the market trend.  Yes, the GMI is at a maximum 6, but it would not take much more of a decline in the QQQQ to cause it to rapidly weaken.  Let’s not try to anticipate the market, however.  We can wait for a definite sell signal to take action.  Just remember, this market has been in a strong up-trend for 85 days. The 10 day average has closed above its 30 day average every day since 8/16 when the rally began.  During the huge rally in the QQQQ that began in March, 2003 after the 2002 bottom, the 10 day average closed above its 30 day average for 103 days. I have to suspect that we are not far from at least a temporary pause in this up-trend.



1 thought on “GMI:6; GMI-S: 63; Ominous signs”

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.