The GMI remains at 6. 52-66% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Friday. 58% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages. There were 140 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.
Friday was the 8th day in the current QQQQ short term up-trend and the 3rd week the index has closed above its 10 week average. So, given these decent stats, why are my trades not working out? For one thing, the QQQQ whipsawed the past two weeks, climbing up and then falling back to support. But since 12/29 the QQQQ is up 2.3% and 61 of its stocks are up 1% or more in that period. The QLD (ultra long QQQQ ETF) is up 4.1%. Believe it or not, GOOG is up 6.4% and AAPL, 4.3% since 12/29. My problem is that I bought more of these stocks (and QLD) as they rose and took losses when they fell back from their highs. The question remains, will these leaders hold support or break down?
Look at this MONTHLY chart of Citigroup (C). I have learned that it is very important to look at three time periods; monthly, weekly and daily, to ascertain trends. After a phenomenal rise in the 90’s, C topped out at 55.15 in September, 2000. It remained below that price for more than 6 years. But on last December 18, C went to a new all-time high and continued on to peak at 57 on 12/28. My guess is that a rise above 57 would be another sign of strength in this stock. When a formerly strong stock breaks out of a multi-year base on high volume, good things tend to happen. Monthly charts can tell us a lot more about long term trends than weekly charts.