GMI: 2; GMI-S: 25; In cash or short

The GMI is now at 2, and there is no reason to fight the down-trend.  I hope you got out when I did when the GMI weakened on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Gmi0726 There were 513 new 52 week lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Thursday, the most  since I began posting in May, 2005.  There were only 46 new highs.  This is not a market to be long in.  The Worden T2108 indicator is now at 19.  Extreme readings at bottoms in 2001 and 2002 have been as low as 7.  So we could go lower, but we are in a level where bottoms occurred in 2004-2006.  The thing that bothers me is the brutal selling in financials, homebuilding real estate and retail.  It looks like the market is predicting a major down-turn in consumer spending and a financial meltdown…..

Cramer’s four tech horsemen (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG and RIMM) held up on Thursday.  He thinks one should still buy tech stocks.  However, the bear gets to everyone and it is likely this decline will not end until these stocks cave in too. If I have learned anything the past 40 years, it is that most stocks follow the market averages and it does not pay to be long in anything in a market down-trend.  Keep in mind, however, that according to my indicators, the QQQQ (the Nasdaq 100 tech stocks) is still in an up-trend, even though the Nasdaq composite (that also includes financial stocks) is in a down-trend.  It is time for me to be short or in cash, even though we may get a bounce soon.

See my disclaimers below.

2 thoughts on “GMI: 2; GMI-S: 25; In cash or short”

  1. Buying the dips works as long as the bull market remains intact.

    At some point all the legitimate concerns will come to bear on the markets. And if that time is now, then “buying the dips” will likely lead to further losses in the short term.

    Monday and Tuesday’s action will be the tell, IMO.

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