GMI: 0; Fed rate cut imminent?

The GMI is at zero for the first time since 7/20/06.  Gmi0815 There were only 7 new highs and 354 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks. Wednesday was the 13th day (D-13) in the current QQQQ down-trend. The Worden T2108 indicator slipped to 8%, near the most extreme levels seen at market declines. (See my prior post.)  Even the long term indicators have weakened, with the GMI-L now at 50%. 

The short term interest rate indicator has shown a remarkable decline the past few days.  This indicator often foreshadows moves by the Federal Reserve.  I think the indicator is telegraphing an imminent rate cut by the Fed. Irxx0815 A rate cut would cause a vigorous snap back market rally,  but such rallies do not necessarily become the permanent market bottom.  It can take a while for lower rates to revive the economy and the market.

For me, the best place to be is in cash and a little short the major indexes. This is no time for heroes.


2 thoughts on “GMI: 0; Fed rate cut imminent?”

  1. A rate cut may start the whole excessive speculation (or rather, gambling) cycle again, i.e, another bubble. Let the market flush out greedy bastards, who irresponsibly gambled ( using excessive leverages) with naive investors’ money.

    These street thugs expect the Fed to bail them out every time the market seems to be in trouble due to their rampant speculation without any regards for risks.

    The sad thing is if things get worse and worse, at one point the Fed may have to cut to save the economy. And as usual, the poor people are the ones that suffer most, while the rich keep getting richer, and always get away with their misdeeds.

    The dollar is currently teetering on multi-year support with a recent feeble bounce. Those who wish for a rate cut may get their wish sooner or later, but when and if they get it, they may witness a different kind of crash, and this one won’t be pretty.

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