GMI: 0; GMI-R: 1; 32nd day of down-trend; up-trend coming?

The GMI remains at zero but the GMI-R rose to one. There were only 45 new highs and 63 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday. Gmi0725

(Click on table to enlarge.) The market is marking time as it determines the next move.  The Worden T2108 indicator is now at 27%, in neutral territory.  Only 18% of the stocks on the IBD100 list published on June 2 closed Friday above their price on that date.  It has clearly been difficult to make money holding IBD type growth stocks during this down-trend. The QQQQ down-trend is in its 32nd day.  The prior down-trend that ended in March lasted 55 days and was followed by an up-trend that ended in June after 54 days.    So, this down-trend  is somewhat young in comparison with the duration of recent  market short term trends….

We are approaching an important critical point.  The QQQQ closed at 45.27.  If it can close above 45.91, I will begin to consider a change in the short term trend from down to up.  With the QQQQ MACD,12,30,9 above its signal line, there is a reasonable chance that the QQQQ is about to turn up.  72% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed Friday above their signal lines. Nevertheless, the challenge is not to anticipate a turn, but to wait until it has occurred.  The QQQQ might also bounce back down against resistance around 45.91.



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