Month: February 2009

There were 7 new highs and 162 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Thursday.   Only two of the stocks on my IBD100 lists hit a new high on Thursday:   SXCI and HMSY.   But the QQQQ was strong, and now 67% of the Nasdaq100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, the most since January 9th.   The GMI remains at one and the GMI-R at four.   I   do not know how long this up-trend will last but it pays to watch it closely.   I have a very small position in QLD, the Ultra long QQQQ ETF, and will add to it if the trend continues.   If the QQQQ up-trend fails, I will be stopped out with a small loss.   The key is to keep doing this until I catch a real up-trend.   I have learned from other bear market bottoms that when I give up in disgust, I   miss the real turn.

The Nasdaq 100 Index, as measured by the ETF, QQQQ, looks as if it started a new short term up-trend.   However, with the key moving averages being flat, I don’t trust these signals yet.   But I remain vigilant for signs of a turn.   There were   9 new highs and 107 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks   on Wednesday.   Interestingly, 60% of the Nasdaq 100 now have their MACD close above its signal line, the most since January 9th.   A rise of the MACD above its signal line often occurs before a trend turns up.   Four stocks at new highs were on my IBD100 lists: HMSY,MYGN,SXCI and CEPH.   These stocks should be watched for possible leadership in a sustained rally. Meanwhile, the GMI and GMI-R increased on Wednesday.   I prefer the GMI to be above 3 before I take large long positions.   I remain mainly in cash.