GMI and GMI-R are back to zero, QQQQ in new down-trend; TSYS and GLD; short or in cash

GMI0/6
GMI-R0/10
T210821%

The GMI and GMI-R have been zero since Tuesday’s close.   There were 3 new highs and 424 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Wednesday. The Worden T2108 Indicator is now 21% and heading down from the reading of 89% on January 6.   In the November swoon, this indicator bottomed at 1.2%.   So we have a long ways to go to hit the same depths present at the November bottom.   The QQQQ is now in the 2nd day of a new short term down-trend.

If you go back a few posts you will see that I wrote that TSYS looked like a break-out from a cup-with-handle formation.   Well, that stock continues to surge higher and hit a nine year high ($9.93) on Wednesday.   William O’Neil has said not to buy break-outs in a bear market, but this may be the one needle in a haystack that will work out.   I continue to hold a few shares of TSYS…..

I am also holding puts on some stocks in my IRA.   One cannot use margin in an IRA so I cannot short stocks there.   But I can buy put options or inverse ETF’s.   I don’t know if it is too late to short weak stocks, but I know that buying stocks that are in down-trends has not worked for me.   Then again, my friend Judy does so well buying stocks that bounce off of their lows.   In fact, she recently bought GLD in the 70’s and still holds some.   Gold and silver (SLV) have been steadily advancing.   I remain mainly in cash.

Jim Cramer finds (TA) religion; TSYS: cup with handle breakout? Indexes are weak, but some promising IBD100 stocks appear

GMI1/6
GMI-R4/10
T210840%

I know that the GMI has kept me and, I hope others, out of the long side of this market since at least August 2008, the last time that the GMI was 4.   I prefer the GMI to be at least 4 before I commit many IRA funds, and especially my university pension,   to the long side.   Since the GMI fell below 4 in late August, the QQQQ (Nasdaq100) and SPY(S&P 500) have declined 35%, and the DIA (Dow 30), by 31%.   During that same time period, 95% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks declined, 36% have declined more than 40%.   The biggest losers in the Nasdaq100 component stocks includes such well respected stocks as: RIMM, ISRG, and DELL (each down 63%), and JOYG (-69%)   and WYNN (-72%). As to   the “safe, buy and hold” Dow 30 stocks; 100% declined in this period, with whopping declines in: AXP (-58%), GE (-60%), GM (-75%), AA (-76%), C (-80%) and BAC (-81%).   Do you see why it does not make sense to fight the general market’s trend, as reflected in the GMI!

Speaking of the GMI, the table below shows

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