Month: May 2010

On May 3rd, I posted the results of my submarine scan, designed to detect stocks in a significant down-trend. The scan was run on the close of 4/29 and this table shows the performance of the nine stocks since then.   TC2007 lets me run a watchlist tracking report that shows the changes of each stock in a watchlist as of the date the stock was added to the list. One can see from this list that all 9 stocks have declined, not an unexpected result, given the market’s decline since then.   Since the close on 4/29, the QQQQ has declined almost 11% and the S&P500 index (SPY), almost 10%.   Note, however, that 5 of the 9 submarine stocks ( 56%) have declined by 15% or more.     In comparison, only 17%of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and 19% of the S&P500 component stocks have declined at least 15% during the same period.   Thus, my submarine scan detected stocks that were more likely to have taken big dives   than would be expected in the components of the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 Indexes.

Furthermore, I wrote in that post on May 2nd, that the charts of 2 Chinese online gaming stocks (NTES and PWRD) looked quite weak and posted a chart of PWRD (click and scroll to post from May 3). Here is the current daily chart of PWRD.   I noted with an arrow the bar on 4/30 which I was looking at when I wrote the post on 5/3.   Note the tremendous gap down that occurred in PWRD on 5/17.   Both NTES and PWRD are down more than 15% since I wrote about them, but PWRD is down more than 25%. It clearly is possible to scan the market for a set of stocks that are more   likely to decline, if the general market weakens……..

As to the general market, all of my indicators are negative.   So the GMI and GMI-R are each zero.   Friday was the 13th day of the current QQQQ short term down-trend (D-13).   The QQQQ and SPY closed below their 10 week averages for three weeks.   Only 2 of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed with their MACD above its signal line, a sign of short term weakness.   The Worden T2108 Indicator, at 12%,   is still in an oversold area where bottoms or bounces typically occur.  The strength of the bounce that began on Friday will determine whether we are in a brief correction or at the beginning of a major new decline.   I am watching the indexes very carefully, and remain mainly in cash in my trading IRA.   If it looks like a major decline is likely, I will move to a money market fund in my university pension. This is a very treacherous market and not the time to be a hero.   The major markets   look very weak to me.