Amazing snap-back, but will it hold?


IBD has today labeled the market in a resumed up-trend, even though there was never a classic follow-through day.   See today’s IBD for their rationale (or rationalization). And my indicators are now positive, maybe too positive.   The GMI is now 6. In just a few days, the T2108 indicator has risen to 70%, near where markets top.   And the daily stochastic that I follow for the QQQ is now near 100% and as high as it got on recent   up-moves. Friday was only the 3rd day (U-3) of the new QQQ short term up-trend.   This was an amazing reversal in just one week. The key to this market is whether this rise will extend to a new recovery high or peter out before.   If the market cannot close at a new high (QQQ above 59.34), the ensuing decline could be violent.   It is not a good idea to fight the trend of the market, however—and the trend is up, for now. I would like to see this new up-trend   get to at least 5 days before I start to slowly wade back into   this market.

4 thoughts on “Amazing snap-back, but will it hold?”

  1. Just wondering how come all these fancy market timing indicators miss 500 pts. rally in the DOW. The best week of the year. Well how correct the financial planners are when they say you cannot time the market and sometimes the whole yearly gains are made in a few quick days 🙂 and the rest of the year its just flat.

  2. I use TC2000 and have a question on the GMI #1 indicator. You indicate that “or 50% min. 20 17/23 74%”. I’m assuming this means there were 23 new highs 10 days ago and 17 of those are higher today. My question is how do you keep track of the new highs 10 days ago? Do you copy each days new high symbols to a file and then track it manually 10 days later to get the percentage?

  3. That would be real difficult. I created a PCF that computes the statistic for me. Hint: Close 10 days ago was at the maximum high of past year and closed today greater than it closed 10 days ago.

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