New QQQ short term down-trend; GMI falls to 2 (of 6); head and shoulders top in techs?


Both the GMI and GMI-2 skidded to 2 (of 6) on Thursday. Another down day will likely flash a new GMI sell signal.   Thursday was the start of a new QQQ short term down-trend.   The up-trend ended after 34 days. I am mainly in cash in my trading accounts but remain invested in my university pension, which I can only trade a few times in a year. It remains to be seen how severe a decline is beginning. It likely will depend on whether the automatic federal budget cuts go into effect on March 1 or are rapidly reversed. The last short term up-trend began when the fiscal cliff was averted at the start of the year. One serious sign of weakness is that on the weekly chart below, the QQQ may be completing an ominous head and shoulders top that began last March. Such a formation could lead to a large multi-month decline.   The QQQ has now closed back below its critical 30 week average (red line) for the first time in nine weeks. The SPY and DIA do not show this technical pattern. We could be heading for another tech-wreck? I may buy some QID or SQQQ on Friday, just in case.

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