I have told you before that I stayed safely out of the market during the 2000-2002 and 2008 market declines. I did so because I determined that the major indexes had entered Weinstein Stage IV down-trends. The SPY and DIA are now in Stage IV down-trends. Both are below their declining 30 week moving averages. The QQQ is also now below its 30 week average, although the average itself is now flat. I am therefore in cash in all of my accounts, including my university pension. I actually have been in cash for some time, as I have written. It is impossible to know how far a down-trend will go. The best strategy for me is to wait for definite signs of a Stage II up-trend before I reenter the market on the long side. I fear we are much closer to the beginning of a major decline than to the end….
By the way, this weekly chart of GLD shows that in spite of its recent bounce, gold remains in a multi-year Stage IV down-trend too. (Red line is 30 week moving average.) Gold may not be a safe haven either.