$QQQ near 2000 market top but earnings-based rally will end—signs of technical weakness


The NASDAQ 100 Index is almost back to its 2000 top!

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Ever notice that the market has a  sell-off before earnings are released. Then we get a nice rebound. Could it be that speculators scare us into selling to them at low prices so they can sell back to us at higher prices after the market recovers? It just seems to be a repeating pattern I have noticed. So after 2nd quarter earnings are out and the market leaders rise, we can expect a tough market in the fall until earnings are released again in October and November. I therefore plan to have a lot of cash on hand and to wait out the next decline so I can buy rebounding stocks in late October. October has brought a lot of market bottoms. This scenario  fits well with the Sell in May and Come Back at Halloween mantra.  Some technical danger signs I see now are that while indexes are at highs, the number of 52 week highs is not, and only 45% of U.S. stocks and 40% of NASDAQ 100 stocks rose on Wednesday. T2108 is at 71, down from a high of 80 about 8 days ago. So the internals of the market may already be showing some signs of weakening. We need to protect our profits –like they did in the bible…..

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