The GMI and GMI-R are each registering 2. Don Worden wrote Thursday night about a possible head and shoulders top, as I did 2 days ago. I am not yet ready to call a top. It will take a few more declines to convince me. But with a GMI of 2, it is prudent to be defensive and to raise stops and cash. With two of the bull market leaders, NFLX and PCLN, hitting new all-highs on Thursday, it is hard to say that the bull is dead. We could just as easily be setting up a head and shoulder’s top as a bottom! The market has bounced around in a range for quite a while. The chart below (click on to enlarge) shows the weekly plot of the QQQQ and its 4,10 and 30 week averages. If we look at the prior recent tops, one can see that the 4 week average typically falls below the 10 and the 30 week averages and leads the decline. At the present time, the 4 week average (black dotted line) is above the 10 week average (blue) and below the 30 week average (red). As long as the 4 week average remains above the 10, I am not ready to call it a major down-trend. Still, there is no reason to be brave when the market averages look like this. Better to conserve my capital until things look better.