Blog Post: Day 1 of new $QQQ short term down-trend and GMI=3. Many fallen angels, $SMCI, $AAPL, $CMG; Buying $SQQQ now; Buying $TQQQ on Day 1 of the recent $QQQ short term up-trend would have produced +40% and beaten almost all individual stocks….

GMI3/6
GMI-24/9
T210851%

Many darling stocks have hit air pockets, SMCI, CMG, AAPL to name a few, see weekly chart. And NVDA has closed below its 10 week average for the first time since January 6, see weekly chart below.  Sell-offs are happening even after earnings beats. And we are entering the weak post earnings release period. Many down markets end in October after a wash out–“come back at Halloween.” I have found that about 40% of new QQQ short term down-trends, as I define them, end in 5 days or less. I bought a little SQQQ on Wednesday and will accumulate more as the down-trend progresses, especially if it can pass a fifth day. I am also concerned that the GMI could fall to 2 and trigger a Red signal if the IBD Mutual Fund Index (0muti) closes below its 50 day average. It is right on it now. If inflation cools and the Fed lowers rates it will be off to the races again. But keep in mind that we may also be headed to a government shut down in late September (thank you, Judy).

While I remain invested in mutual funds in my longer term university retirement accounts, I am in cash with a little SQQQ in my IRA trading account. When the QQQ short term trend turns up again, I hope to  buy TQQQ. If one had bought TQQQ on Day 1 of the QQQ short term up-trend on 4/28/23 one would have an increase of +40.5% through today’s close. That would have beaten 95% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and all but 4 of the S&P500 stocks. Why do I not have the discipline to do that every Day 1 of a new QQQ short term up-trend? I guess I would rather try to find the rare needle in the haystack that beats TQQQ. Did any of my readers buy and hold TQQQ?

6 thoughts on “Blog Post: Day 1 of new $QQQ short term down-trend and GMI=3. Many fallen angels, $SMCI, $AAPL, $CMG; Buying $SQQQ now; Buying $TQQQ on Day 1 of the recent $QQQ short term up-trend would have produced +40% and beaten almost all individual stocks….”

  1. great content. Dr Wish, when you add to a tqqq or sqqq position what are your rules for adding? I mean you add on a particular support? Thanks!

  2. Thanks for everything Dr. Wish. I’ve been reading your blog regularly for about a decade, and continue to find inspiration in your words. I love the concept of just riding TQQQ and I usually have a position during uptrends. I like to think of it as a gauge to measure my edge against. When I’m having a period of self-doubt, it’s a great fallback that gives me confidence while I regroup.

    I most recently held a position in TQQQ from 2/8/23 to 6/29/23. I have a more discretionary, intuitive style than yours. I feel as though my intuition loses its voice when I adopt rigid, formula-based rules, and/or maybe I’m not willing to exercise the discipline to make a formulaic approach work. What I’m doing seems to be working (in this forgiving bull market), so I just keep studying and honing. You’re my favorite and most consistent voice of logic and reason, a signal in the noise; thank you for thinking out loud about the market.
    Wade

  3. I went in 100% to SPY/QQQ for all my long term investments when you said it was green earlier this year. Made about 15%, pretty happy with that. (fyi im a student from 2006~)

  4. I’m new to trading and investing, and wondering if the time decay on TQQQ is negligible for short term holds of 1-6 months in an uptrend. My brokerage warns of holding overnight and I’m curious about the discrepancy. Lots of confusing info from what I’ve found online. Is this warning due to 3X volatility, time decay, excessive fees?

    Is there a ballpark percentage for time decay and fees for holding weeks to months? Thank you

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: