My short term indicators are signaling at least a short term decline. Wednesday was the 4th day of the new QQQQ short term down-trend. Once a decline begins one never knows how long it will last. A major clue I use is the Worden T2108 Indicator. Most of the time a decline ends with this indicator below 20%. The 2008 decline ended with a reading around 1.2%. It currently is at 26%.
With the entire world seemingly enamored of cutting government deficits, several pundits are asserting that this misguided strategy will bring on an economic depression. I tend to agree. Government spending = somebody’s income. When you cut spending you reduce income, throw people out of work and cut consumer demand, not exactly the outcomes that we desire. If government spending does not make up for the huge loss in wealth and consumer demand that resulted from the evaporation of real estate values, where is the money going to come from to foster demand for goods and services? So, in this context, the market may be telling us that really bad times are ahead.
It is therefore time for me to get defensive and to begin to pull money out of my university pension mutual funds. I will do so in stages as the trends mature. The weekly GMMA chart below shows that the longer term moving averages (red) of the QQQQ are beginning to level out. We are not in a full fledged decline yet, but once the longer term averages top out and curve down as they did at the end of 2007, we will be. Therefore, with the shorter term averages (black lines) in a decline and converging with the longer term averages (red) I believe we are more likely at the beginning, rather than at the end of a major decline.