Blog post: End of quarter window dressing rebound; IBD says “resumed uptrend” but GMI remains Red and $AAPL is in a daily BWR down-trend

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I should have mentioned earlier that the market might rebound with the end of quarter mutual fund window dressing period. Since mutual fund quarterly reports only specify account holdings and not when they were acquired, funds buy up the strong stocks so that they can show their customers how wise they have been. With that period ending we could see some weakness until earnings reports start coming out. Meanwhile, IBD now asserts that there has been a follow-through day (FTD) and that the up-trend has resumed. Time will tell, but only 3 of the GMI’s six components are positive. (See table below.) And look how bad a leader like $AAPL is doing, now in a daily BWR down-trend. (All six red short term averages below the falling blue longer term averages with a white space between them.)

And QQQ is still making up its mind. Which way will it go? Trend followers stay pat until the trend is defined.

But SPY remains strong, hence the bifurcated market.


Blog post: 19th day of $QQQ short term down-trend; daily BWR down-trend on deck?

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This chart shows that QQQ has fallen back below all 12 daily moving averages. Could form a daily BWR down-trend. The pundits are talking about rotation from tech to value stocks. But in my experience, tech has always led. It could be we are seeing a top in tech to be followed by a top in the other stocks after the laggards rise a little. Sell in May is also on the horizon. This is the time to be in cash and on the sidelines. The market discounts the future.  It rose during the pandemic as  it focused on the coming recovery. It would not be unusual for the market to decline during the economic recovery as it foresees inflation, higher rates and an exploding budget deficit. I prefer to stand back and wait for Mr. Market to reveal his intentions.

 

Note that the QQQ has been below its 10 week average for 4 weeks while SPY has remained above for 7 weeks. The GMI remains on a Green signal. Beware if it Turns Red.

Blog Post–My 2012 Houston TC2000 Users Group video is available at my blog’s Topics/Webinars Tab; I gained a lot by watching!!

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My undergraduate students have an assignment to review it. This slide presents my approach at that time. The video explains each of these rules. Today, I add stocks from the MarketSmith Growth250 list.

 

The GMI remains on a Green signal. I do not remember a market when the QQQ type growth stocks diverged so much from other stocks. I still think the demise of the leaders could foreshadow a general market decline. They always shoot the generals before the troops. If the QQQ can retake its 10 week average I will feel more assured about the market.